ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 25

PCMO MARKET FORECAST AND REGIONAL
VARIATIONS
In closing, even assuming a fast-paced adoption of EVs,
ICE vehicles will continue to prevail, accounting for threefourths of the global passenger vehicle population by 2040
In the near-term (2018-25), electric mobility is expected
to remain a niche market, with a limited influence on the
demand for engine oils and other finished lubricants.
In the long-term beyond 2025, growth of EVs is expected
to exert a greater influence on finished lubricants, mainly as
Global EV Population By Country and EV Type, 2040
250

200

150
HEV

100

PHEV
BEV

25

Saudi Arabia

South Africa

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

Australia

Canada

South Korea

India

France

China

Germany

United Kingdom

0

United States

50

Japan

LONGER-TERM DISRUPTORS - SHARED MOBILITY
AND AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES
Another key disruptor concerns the rise of shared transportation providers, ranging from ride-hailing services (e.g., Uber
or Lyft) to ride-sharing and car-sharing service providers. In

the near term, shared mobility services can cause higher car
utilization, boosting PCMO consumption because of the
more frequent oil change intervals. BEVs are not yet widely
used in shared mobility services due to concerns over their
driving range and charging infrastructure. However, once
these hurdles are overcome, shared mobility providers might
adopt BEVs instead of private drivers.
Looking into the future, AVs could become another large
disruptor of the broader transportation industry by transitioning to on-demand transportation models. However,
many challenges will need to be overcome before self-driving
cars are ready for the mainstream. Because of technological
and liability challenges, changes needed in infrastructure
and hacking issues, among others, they are not expected to
be commercially available or play a significant role before
the 2030s.

Million units

In the near term, HEVs and PHEVs remain popular
mobility alternatives. HEVs are already used often as
commercial fleet vehicles, bringing about the benefits of
reduced fuel costs. PHEVs can also use their ICEs when
needed. Both technologies still require engine oils, and drain
intervals are not expected to be very different from conventional ICE vehicles.
The deeper penetration of EVs has the potential to reduce
lubricant consumption, especially engineless BEVs, as
they eliminate the need for the largest product category -
PCMO. The silver lining is that BEVs will also create several
opportunities in areas including coolants, specialized greases,
and gear and transmission fluids. To maintain optimal operating temperatures, some EV manufacturers may use liquid
coolants for batteries as well as for moving parts, resulting in
increasing coolant consumption. Lubricant suppliers might
use this opportunity to introduce EV-specific specialty
products, with some offering dielectric properties. The
introduction of EV- and hybrid-specific specialty lubricants
creates an opportunity for lubricant suppliers to compensate
for volume losses with an increase in value.



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings April 2018

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
LETTER FROM THE CEO
INSIDE ILMA
WHAT’S COMING UP
INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
In the Know
International Insight
Market Report
DO DISRUPTIONS DAMAGE DURABILITY?
REAGAN’S TRADE LESSONS FOR TRUMP
MINING FOR SUCCESS
COUNSEL COMPOUND
WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
IN NETWORK
Member Connections
Cross Connections
PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover1
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover2
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 1
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 2
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 4
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - LETTER FROM THE CEO
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - INSIDE ILMA
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 7
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 8
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 9
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 10
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 11
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - WHAT’S COMING UP
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 13
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 15
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - In the Know
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 17
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - International Insight
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 19
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Market Report
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 21
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 22
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 23
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 24
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 25
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 26
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 27
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - DO DISRUPTIONS DAMAGE DURABILITY?
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 29
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 30
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 31
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 32
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 33
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - REAGAN’S TRADE LESSONS FOR TRUMP
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 35
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 36
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 37
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 38
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 39
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 40
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 41
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - MINING FOR SUCCESS
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 43
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 44
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 45
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 46
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 47
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - COUNSEL COMPOUND
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 49
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 50
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 51
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 53
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Member Connections
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 55
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 56
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 57
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cross Connections
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 59
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 60
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 61
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 62
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 63
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover3
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G126213ILMA_vol71_no6
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G125546_ILMA_vol71_no5
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G124996_ILMA_vol71_no4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G123886_ILMA_vol71_no3
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G123315_ILMA_vol71_no2
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G122980_ILMA_vol71_no1
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G121540_ILMA_vol70_no11
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G120882_ILMA_vol70_no10
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G120035_ILMA_vol70_no9
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G121XXX_ILMA_vol70_no8
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G120XXX_ILMA_vol70_no7
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G119XXX_ILMA_vol70_no6
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G118112_ILMA_vol70_no5
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G117382_ILMA_vol70_no4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G116888_ILMA_vol70_no3
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G115555_ILMA_vol70_no2
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G114774_ILMA_vol70_no1
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g110500_ILMA_vol69_no12
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g110500_ILMA_vol69_no11
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g110500_ILMA_vol69_no10
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g109884_ILMA_vol69_no9
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g109284_ILMA_vol69_no8
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g108494_ILMA_vol69_no7
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g107507_ILMA_vol69_no6
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g106483_ILMA_vol69_no5
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g105803_ILMA_vol69_no4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g104743_ILMA_vol69_no3
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g103647_ILMA_vol69_no2
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g102869_ILMA_vol69_no1
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g101930_ILMA_vol68_no12
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g100836_ILMA_vol68_no11
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g99200_ILMA_vol68_no10
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g98468_ILMA_vol68_no9
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/g97711_ILMA_vol68_no8
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G96767ILMA_vol68_no7
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G95397ILMA_vol65_no6
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G94323ILMA_vol68_no5
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G93127_ILMA_vol69_no4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G91785_ILMA_vol68_no3
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G90956_ILMA_vol68_no2
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G89146_ILMA_vol68_no1
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G87981_ILMA_vol67_no12
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G85409_ILMA_vol67_no11
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G83595_ILMA_vol67_no10
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G81672_ILMA_vol67_no9
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G80238_ILMA_vol7_no8
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G79388_ILMA_vol7_no7
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G78361_ILMA_vol7_no6
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G77448_ILMA_vol7_no5
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G75899_ILMA_vol67_no4
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G75036_ILMA_vol67_no3
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G72720_ILMA_vol67_no2
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G72220_ILMA_vol67_no1
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G70970_ILMA_vol66_no12
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G69813_ILMA_vol66_no11
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G67522_ILMA_vol66_no10
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G66343_ILMA_vol66_no9
https://www.nxtbook.com/ygsreprints/ILMA/G64859_ILMA_vol66_no8
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com