ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 26

INDUSTRY RUNDOWN

Market Report
a byproduct of technological improvements, new production processes and the inevitable convergence with other
technological platforms, namely shared and autonomous
transportation.
Our analysis shows that the U.S. PCMO market size will
be 12 percent lower (on the volumetric bases) in 2040 as
compared to the "no EVs" scenario. Other factors (primarily
increasing drain intervals) will make a larger impact, causing
over 20 percent reduction of the total U.S. PCMO demand
alone by 2040.
EV Global Population, 2017

aftermarket business will witness increased value-driven
competition, tightening the cooperation among the various
stakeholders in the finished lubricant value chain. New
market opportunities can be also identified in emerging
alternative channels. For instance, blenders (Shell) and
car manufacturers (Hyundai, Volvo) are partnering with
ride-hailing companies (Uber, among others) or technology
firms (Waymo) to work with car rental companies (Avis). By
being the first to engage in alternative trade channels, companies are defining new marketing approaches and product
differentiation strategies.
Luzuriaga is project manager at Kline Market
Research, Energy.

ICE-a
BEV

99%

1%

1%

PHEV
HEV

Total ~ 16 million units

EV Global Population, 2040

ICE-a

16%

BEV
PHEV

76%

24%
4%

HEV

4%
Total ~ 440 million units

The degree of EV penetration will vary at a regional and
country level, reflecting socio-economic factors, existing
infrastructure and government interventions. In quickly
growing economies in Asia-Pacific, PCMO demand will most
likely continue to grow, driven by robust car sales even under
a high EV-penetration scenario. Conversely, PCMO demand
in the U.S. and Europe will be more susceptible to downward
pressure, even under a low EV-penetration scenario. It can
be expected that the effect of EV will be marginal on PCMO
demand in emerging economies in the Middle East, Africa
and Latin America. These countries will post healthy growth
driven by robust new car sales based on ICEs.
Considering the inherent uncertainty of the longer-term
outlook, it is important to look beyond the pure market
numbers and pay attention to the broader shifts within
the value chain and possible scenarios. The automotive

26

APRIL 2018

| COMPOUNDINGS | ILMA.ORG

Melnichuk is senior consultant at Kline Management
Consulting Energy.


http://www.ILMA.ORG

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings April 2018

LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
LETTER FROM THE CEO
INSIDE ILMA
WHAT’S COMING UP
INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
In the Know
International Insight
Market Report
DO DISRUPTIONS DAMAGE DURABILITY?
REAGAN’S TRADE LESSONS FOR TRUMP
MINING FOR SUCCESS
COUNSEL COMPOUND
WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
IN NETWORK
Member Connections
Cross Connections
PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover1
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover2
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 1
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 2
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 4
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - LETTER FROM THE CEO
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - INSIDE ILMA
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 7
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 8
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 9
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 10
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 11
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - WHAT’S COMING UP
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 13
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - INDUSTRY RUNDOWN
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 15
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - In the Know
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 17
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - International Insight
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 19
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Market Report
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 21
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 22
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 23
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 24
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 25
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 26
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 27
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - DO DISRUPTIONS DAMAGE DURABILITY?
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 29
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 30
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 31
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 32
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 33
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - REAGAN’S TRADE LESSONS FOR TRUMP
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 35
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 36
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 37
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 38
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 39
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 40
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 41
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - MINING FOR SUCCESS
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 43
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 44
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 45
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 46
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 47
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - COUNSEL COMPOUND
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 49
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 50
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 51
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - WASHINGTON LANDSCAPE
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 53
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Member Connections
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 55
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 56
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 57
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cross Connections
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 59
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 60
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 61
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 62
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - 63
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - PORTRAIT
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover3
ILMA Compoundings April 2018 - Cover4
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