ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 17

70%
Snapshot of the World's Largest HDMO markets
CV fleet 2018
On-highway market
share

On-highway
Off-highway
Most used viscosity grade
Viscosity trends
Main quality level
Impact of EV
HDMO demand growth
to 2040
Top 3 OEMs by sales 2018

United States
~21 million

China
~93 million

70%
Light 31%
Medium/Heavy 69%
Agri. 64%
Const. 27% All others incl.
mining 9%
SAE 15W-40
Growth of SAE 5W-30 and 10W-30

25%

API CK-4
Low

25%
Light 68%
Medium/Heavy 32%
Agri. 41%
Const. 45% All others incl.
mining 14%
SAE 20W-50
Growth of SAE 15W-30 and double-digit
growth of SAE 5W-40 and 10W-40
API CH-4
Higher

CAGR (0.5)%

CAGR (2.7)%

GE/FORD/FCA 42%

Donfeng/BAIC & SGMW 32%

in the light-duty vehicle segment. As mentioned already,
lighter vehicles are more easily electrified, which means there
could be a larger uptake of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in
China. The total share of NEVs, including battery electric,
plug-in hybrids, and hybrids in the on-highway segment is
forecast to be just short of 20% by 2040, up from 2% in
2018. Despite the uncertainties surrounding the penetration
of NEVs into this segment, their long-term penetration will
contribute to the volume decline in the region's HDMO
market. In the most likely scenario for NEV penetration,
total demand for on-highway HDMO is predicted to be cut
in half by 2040.
Another contributing factor to the negative HDMO
volume growth is the expected decline in sales of on-highway
trucks and buses at a CAGR of 3.7% out to 2040. This is
based on a number of factors, including increased competition from other transportation sectors, such as rail, and the
slowdown in economic growth over the longer term.
However, what can be seen as a positive trend in China is
the anticipated lubricant quality upgrade (Q-up). Although
API CF-4 still accounts for one-third of HDMO demand
today, tightening emissions legislation, with National VI
phasing in from 2020, means continued Q-up is likely here.
MORE TRUCKS TO USE API CI-4 QUALITY
By 2027, our projections suggest that 80% of trucks will use
quality grades at or above API CI-4. Another trend will be the
move to lower viscosity grades as OEMs change oil recommendations to help meet emissions regulations, achieve longer
ODI, improve fuel economy and ensure better protection
for their engines. While SAE 20W-50 still holds 50% of the
market today, OEMs are increasingly recommending lower

viscosity multigrade HDMO instead of monogrades. SAE
15W-40 will post only modest growth, while SAE 5W-40 and
10W-40 - currently holding only minor market shares -
may witness double-digit growth in the future.
CAPTURING VALUE
Marketers looking for growth in the global HDMO market
need to carefully assess the trends in each geographic region
to ensure they have the right products to meet the opportunities and challenges that are arising. As volumes decline,
suppliers who can quickly identify potential opportunities
to meet evolving market needs for improved fuel economy,
emissions reduction, reduced vehicle downtime, and cost
savings will be able to create and capture value.
HDMO Market in 2040: A Long-term Outlook report
explores the influences of emerging technologies on the
global HDMO market. Electric vehicles, telematics and digitization are just some of the factors that the report examines
in terms of their impact on future lubricant trends. Profiles
of six leading country markets are provided, which enables
readers to identify the possible regional scenarios and their
impact on long-term HDMO demand. The report also provides information on demand by viscosity grade, factory fill
versus service fill, quality levels, distribution channels and
end-use industries. This gives actionable insights to assist
lubricant marketers to identify opportunities and challenges
within the evolving HDMO industry.
Luzuriaga is project manager of energy at
Kline Group. He can be reached at
sharbel.luzuriaga@klinegroup.com.

17



ILMA Compoundings June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of ILMA Compoundings June 2019

ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - Cover1
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - Cover2
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 1
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 2
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 3
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 4
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 5
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 6
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 7
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 8
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 9
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 10
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 11
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 12
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 13
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 14
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 15
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 16
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 17
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 18
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 19
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 20
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 21
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 22
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 23
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 24
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 25
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 26
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 27
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 28
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 29
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 30
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 31
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 32
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 33
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 34
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 35
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 36
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 37
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 38
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 39
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - 40
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - Cover3
ILMA Compoundings June 2019 - Cover4
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