The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 8

THE BOTTOM LINE

The Phillips Curve
How the Fed learned to stop worrying and love inflation
By Curt Long

L

ast May, the current economic
expansion became the secondlongest in U.S. recorded history.
And barring a recession in the
first half of 2019, it will overtake the
decadelong expansion in the 1990s as
the longest in history. During that time,
economists watched with puzzlement
as the unemployment rate dropped
to a 50-year low, and yet inflationary

pressures - the traditional dance
partner of high-performing economies
- were nowhere to be found. What
ensued was a re-examination of the classical framework for understanding the
dynamics of inflation.
The Phillips Curve is a staple of any introductory macroeconomics course. Essentially, it describes what has historically

been a close relationship between cyclical
unemployment (that which goes beyond
normal patterns of job gains and losses
and is determined by economic conditions) and inflation. As unemployment
falls near or below its "natural" rate, price
pressures build, or so the theory goes.
And based on the evidence, the theory
was a sound one until recently.

TRADITIONAL PHILLIPS CURVE
15

Core Inflation (%)

12

9

6

3

0

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Cyclical Unemployment* (%)
* Difference between actual unemployment and nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU)
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Congressional Budget Office
8

THE NAFCU JOURNAL MAY-JUNE 2019



The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019

The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019
Contents
Conferences
From the Chair
Washington and Industry Briefs
The Bottom Line
Welcome, New Members
Knowledge Is Power Credit unions leverage data and analytics for strategic business growth.
Lowering the High Cost of Internal Fraud Policies, culture and training work together to improve fraud detection and prevention.
2019 Annual Conference Exhibitor Directory
Executive Spotlight
Management Insight
Compliance Central
Inside NAFCU Services
From the President’s Desk
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Cover2
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Contents
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 2
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Conferences
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - From the Chair
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 5
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Washington and Industry Briefs
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 7
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - The Bottom Line
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 9
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 10
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 11
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Welcome, New Members
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 13
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 14
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 15
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 16
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 17
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Knowledge Is Power Credit unions leverage data and analytics for strategic business growth.
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 19
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 20
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 21
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 22
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 23
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 24
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 25
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Lowering the High Cost of Internal Fraud Policies, culture and training work together to improve fraud detection and prevention.
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 27
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 28
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 29
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 30
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 31
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 32
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 33
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 34
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 2019 Annual Conference Exhibitor Directory
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 36
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 37
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 38
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 39
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 40
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 41
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Executive Spotlight
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 43
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 44
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 45
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Management Insight
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 47
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Compliance Central
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 49
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Inside NAFCU Services
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - 51
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - From the President’s Desk
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Cover3
The NAFCU Journal May - June 2019 - Cover4
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