POWER January 2023 - 20

2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST
2. Carbon Clean's revolutionary technology,
CycloneCC, is a pre-fabricated and skidmounted
carbon capture solution that solves
the two biggest barriers to the widespread
deployment of CCUS-cost and space. It reduces
the overall cost of carbon capture by up
to 50% and has a footprint that is up to 50%
smaller than conventional carbon capture
units. Courtesy: Carbon Clean
ing carbon capture, utilization, and storage
[CCUS, Figure 2] solutions to tackle
industrial emissions. We had some incredibly
constructive conversations with
policymakers, industrial companies, and
investors-all of us coming together to
agree the critical steps to scaling CCUS,
kickstarting new projects, and delivering
industrial decarbonization, " Aniruddha
Sharma, CEO of Carbon Clean, said in a
statement issued to POWER.
Fay said Guidehouse anticipates a continued
and increased focus on decarbonization
of the energy system, including
electrification, and increased penetration
and integration of DERs, solar and EVs
in particular. " We're seeing climate risks
become a reality, with more frequent
and more extreme weather events, " she
said. " These extreme weather events
combined with the aging infrastructure
and increased adoption of DERs present
reliability and cybersecurity risks. On the
opportunity side, these increased volumes
of data and continued digitization
of the grid present an opportunity to leverage
data and information for analytics
and more informed, real-time decisionmaking.
Additionally, the anticipated
influx of funding through the bipartisan
infrastructure law combined with incentives
in the Inflation Reduction Act provide
the financial mechanisms to enable
the investments required to address
these risks. Finally, we're anticipating
large energy customers will more actively
leverage hydrogen and other renewables
to meet increasingly aggressive
net-zero goals. "
Yet, Carrino believes there are challenges
ahead for renewables, specifically
wind. " The growth in wind will be
slowed for several reasons: technical issues
associated with rapid upscaling of
20
the turbines, law of diminishing returns
as the highest wind resource locations
are becoming overcrowded, as well as
having to spread the technology to lower
wind resource locations after the best
resource locations have been taken, " he
said. " Wind farms have the highest probability
of cannibalizing previously built
projects. Limitations due to the slow
build-out of new high-voltage transmission
lines will continue to be a challenge.
Projects continue to be built, mainly renewable
plants, faster than high-voltage
transmission can be approved and built
to relieve the new constraints. "
Furthermore, renewable energy sources
are not without costs and impacts to
the environment. " There are existing
problems that have been identified and
quantified in terms of material sourcing,
transportation, waste, and other potential
effects that still need to be identified
and quantified in terms of how various
emerging technologies and substitution
technologies are influencing our climate,
weather, and overall sustainability on our
planet, " Carrino told POWER.
Workforce Shortages
Workforce issues seem to be front and
center for many power companies. " Unfortunately,
it is a part of the new normal, "
Ozkan said. He suggested there
would be further difficulties ahead, as
labor-related tax credits and multipliers
become sought after following passage
of the IRA.
Fay agreed. " Between the aging
workforce and the rapid scaling of new
technology, finding qualified personnel
to meet labor demands has become the
new norm, " she said. " We're seeing the
need for new skills to support the installation
and adoption of new technology
(heat pumps, solar, vehicle charging,
etc.) to address the trends above. This
requires more proactive workforce planning
and development, including training
and transitioning of workers with
the skills that will be required now and
in the future. Just as the industry is
transforming, the workforce must be
transforming along with it. The traditional
methods of hiring and training no
longer meet our needs, and the industry
must take advantage of this opportunity
to hire, train, and engage a more diverse
and talented workforce. "
" We have seen that when a plant's
original staff contingent hits retirement
age, the lack of adequate knowledge
transfer can leave knowledge gaps, "
Carrino noted. He expects the gaps to
www.powermag.com
continue for some time unless companies
are proactively implementing
solid training and knowledge transfer
programs. " Power companies partnering
with regional colleges and technical
schools have been more successful
generating interest with potential recruits
and maintaining a steady stream
of talent, " he said.
DeCotis, meanwhile, sees other reasons
for optimism. " With monetary policy
tightening by the Federal Reserve and
other leading central banks, the economy
and inflation is abating, and layoffs
are increasing. While the energy industry
is relatively stable, highly skilled labor is
beginning to hit the market, so I suspect
any shortages of qualified people for the
industry will be short-lived, " he said.
Supply Chain Issues Expected to
Continue
The experts seemed more aligned when
supply chain issues were mentioned.
Most believe problems are likely to endure.
" These difficulties will continue
through at least 2023, " Ozkan predicted.
" Some IRA incentives are pushing domestic
content, but the capacity isn't
there and won't be there overnight. Furthermore,
the anti-dumping/circumvention
tariffs have only been suspended but
we are not out of the woods yet. Without
access to the massive Chinese and other
far-east markets, the demand for panels
and other materials will fall well short of
the ambition we have of furthering the
energy transition. "
Guidehouse also anticipates supply
chain issues to continue, at least in
the near term. " With the increased demands
for equipment, EVs, renewable
technology, etc., the gap between what
is needed and what is available is widening.
While the enactment of the Defense
Production Act in June alleviates some of
these challenges, it isn't enough to turn
the corner in the near term, " said Fay.
" Historically, there have been long
lead times for large utility infrastructure
technologies and equipment, and the
pandemic intensified the situation with
supply chain disruptions, " said DeCotis.
To counter the problem, industry leaders
have been placing orders sooner, looking
for new and more secure suppliers, and
aggregating buying power. " While these
efforts will help, large capital projects
will continue to face long lead times and
the industry will adapt to them as it has
in the past, " DeCotis concluded. ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
POWER| January 2023
http://www.powermag.com
POWER January 2023

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of POWER January 2023
