American Oil and Gas Reporter - June 2014 - 147

ness group announced it had raised more
than $770,000 to mount a campaign in
general opposition to ballot initiatives
that rewrite the state's constitution and
to the initiatives aimed at the oil and gas
industry. Coloradoans for Responsible
Reform, which claims success with past
voter initiatives, says it has raised money
from a variety of state trade associations
and companies in an effort to support
Colorado's economic recovery.
Nevertheless, published reports say,
the early stages of the fight over ballot
initiatives show industry opponents are
pulling in significant financial support
from wealthy donors from the East and
West coasts, and they also are garnering
highly visible rhetorical backing from
U.S. Representative Jared Polis, D-Co.
Different This Year
Unlike 2013, circumstances appear to
favor the industry in 2014, suggests Floyd
Ciruli, a Denver-based pollster and political
analyst. "Fortunately for the business
community," he writes on his blog, "this
appears to be a very good year to stop
extreme environmental initiatives."
Other pro-industry themes that seem
prevalent this year, Ciruli says, include
energy independence, a midterm election
in which voter turnout tends to be lower,

and wider support for jobs and other benefits that come with energy development.
Even so, Ciruli suggests, the industry
should take nothing for granted. "The
gas and oil industry already is spending
millions in media, public relations and
consultants to oppose the initiatives," he
notes. "Colorado is ground zero for the
national fracturing battle, even if it is
disguised as a fight for local control. And

the fight will be expensive."
This year, industry allies say they are
determined to avoid a repeat of last fall's
shutout at the polls. Even with a shift in
the political winds that seems to work
against the fracturing bans, the Alliance
and its allies are showing they are more
than willing to do what it takes to defeat
the anti-industry initiatives.
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EXPANSION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
FROM PAGE 46
coal plant retirement, total additions of
natural gas-fired combined-cycle capacity
are 32-50 percent higher than in the reference case, the Outlook says.
The EIA points to freight rail as a potential additional market for natural gas,
although it warns any transition from
diesel fuel for freight locomotives depends
on economics, infrastructure needs, and
railroads' decisions with regard to risk
and uncertainty.
The Outlook develops several scenarios
that anticipate varying degrees of gas penetrating the domestic freight rail market.
In the high-use case, natural gas is used to
meet nearly all freight rail energy demand
by 2040, while in the reference case it
gains 35 percent. Because the transportation

sector is a relatively small natural gas
consumer, EIA projects this seemingly
dramatic fuel switch will have a minor
impact on overall U.S. consumption.
The shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels for generating electricity
will help stabilize energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions, EIA predicts. In its
reference case, total U.S. energy-related
CO2 emissions remain below 2005 levels
every year through 2040, with industrial
sector CO2 emissions exceeding those
from the transportation sector beginning
in 2024. The Outlook points to new fuel
economy standards, biofuel mandates,
and shifts in consumer behavior as principal factors for declining transportation
sector emissions.
❒

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JUNE 2014 147
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American Oil and Gas Reporter - June 2014

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