Crains New York - June 24, 2013 - (Page 11)

What world are the candidates living in? S ome of our mayoral candidates are living in a parallel universe to the New York City I know. There may be a gulf between what they say now and how they would actually govern. But I must take them at their word, and many of their words are scary to our city’s future. To appeal to the city’s vast number of renters, Christine Quinn, John Liu and Bill de Blasio all showed up at a Rent Guidelines Board hearing to argue for a rent freeze. If owners’ costs are going up, too bad for them. These candidates are fine with taking money from other people’s pockets. Mr. Liu and Mr. de Blasio also support a more direct reach into the pockets of those earning $500,000 or more by raising their city income taxes. They know that there are far more people below than above that line. The numbers work for them. The candidates are in a bind on labor issues, where the numbers don’t work for anyone. All city employees have expired contracts. Their union leaders will take their chances with a new mayor rather than negotiate with Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Retroactive raises would cost up to $7.8 billion, money the city does not have. The candidates know this, and most duck the issue, saying they won’t negotiate in public. But Mr. Liu has promised at least partial pay,saying he ALAIR TOWNSEND could fund part of it by slashing consultant contracts. Really? Only Joe Lhota among the major candidates has ruled out retroactive pay. Another significant labor cost is that few city workers or retirees pay anything for their health insurance coverage—in contrast to private- It’ll be a two-person race for mayor O f course there will be a runoff in the Democratic race for mayor. After all, goes the thinking, there are four major candidates with at least 15% in the latest Quinnipiac poll, plus John Liu lurking with 6%. With support from a mere quarter of the voters, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn seems unlikely to reach the magic 40% figure needed to win the primary on Sept. 10. Actually,there is a good chance there won’t be a runoff. History tells us so. Consider 1989, when the Democratic primary was regarded as a competitive four-way contest between a damaged Ed Koch, Manhattan Borough President David Dinkins, longtime and respected city Comptroller Harrison Goldin and civic leader Richard Ravitch. Mr. Dinkins led for most of the summer, Mr. Koch surged, and Messrs. Ravitch and Goldin tried to build on their strong press. Mr. Dinkins won without a runoff because Mr. Ravitch got a whopping 4% and Mr. Goldin 3%. The same pattern—let’s call it the August fade—happened in 2001. For most of the year, Mayor Rudy Giuliani endlessly attacked city Comptroller Alan Hevesi, who was regarded as a strong candidate GREG DAVID because he was supported by the teachers’ union. In early August, polls gave Public Advocate Mark Green 36% of the vote. Mr. Hevesi and City Council Speaker Peter Vallone were in the high teens, and Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer trailed with 14%. sector workers and virtually every other government employee in the country. Only Anthony Weiner and Mr. Lhota among the major candidates firmly call for employee cost-sharing. What may shape our future more than any issue is policing strategies to ensure that New York remains the safest big city. Many of us remember when it wasn’t. Fear kept visitors, businesses and young people away. Public safety is the prerequisite to everything else we value. And here, the candidates are overwhelmingly opposed to current police methods, notably stop, question and frisk. Opponents charge that minority men, especially young men, are disproportionately stopped. The police commissioner uses a state-of-the-art crimetracking system to deploy resources, which results in disproportionate stops in the highest-crime areas. Those proactive measures stop many crimes before they occur. The drop in crime supports these methods. Most of the candidates—with Bill Thompson and Mr. Lhota being exceptions—want to secondguess the commissioner by installing an inspector general or agreeing to a federal monitor for the department and make dramatic changes in police strategies. Those will hamstring departmental leadership and result in an upsurge in crime that will harm us all. The city’s strength can easily be undone by bad policies, such as those advocated by many of the candidates. The prospect is horrifying. Then Al Sharpton endorsed Mr. Ferrer, whose campaign caught fire. Messrs. Hevesi and Vallone faded. The weekend before the Sept. 11 election, the polls had Mr. Ferrer in first, right at the magic 40% threshold. Because the vote was canceled because of the terrorist attacks, no one knows what the result would have been, but it is reasonable to believe Mr. Ferrer would have won outright rather than lose to Mr. Green in the rescheduled primary. This scenario essentially repeated itself in 2005. Another four-way contest: City Council Speaker Gifford Miller, regarded as a rising star when the campaign began; Manhattan Borough President Virginia Fields, the only African-American in the race; an up-and-coming congressman named Anthony Weiner, and a return appearance by Mr. Ferrer. Mr. Miller faded badly. Ms. Fields never got out of the midteens, and Mr. Ferrer came so close to 40% that Mr. Weiner decided not to force a runoff. Of course, this year could be different. Yet the 2013 race offers so many parallels to every multiplecandidate primary since 1989. So expect a decisive change in the polls in August, as voters focus on the race, and for the lagging candidates to be abandoned by supporters who want their vote to count. When the calendar turns to September, it will be a two-person race. As in 2001, though, it isn’t clear in June who those two candidates will be. Bringing clients to the next level Industries served: Financial Services . Manufacturing & Distribution . Technology . Retail . Construction . Architecture & Engineering Real Estate . Healthcare . Transportation & Shipping 488 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10022 50 Jericho Quadrangle, Jericho, NY 11753 www.grassicpas.com June 24, 2013 | Crain’s New York Business | 11 http://www.mogil.com http://www.mogil.com http://www.crainsnewyork.com http://www.grassicpas.com http://www.grassicpas.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Crains New York - June 24, 2013

Crains New York - June 24, 2013
IN THE BOROUGHS
IN THE MARKETS
THE INSIDER
SMALL BUSINESS
BUSINESS PEOPLE
OPINION
ALAIR TOWNSEND
GREG DAVID
REAL ESTATE DEALS
REPORT: 50 MOST POWERFUL WOMEN IN NEW YORK
CLASSIFIEDS
DIGITAL NY
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
SOURCE LUNCH
OUT AND ABOUT
SNAPS

Crains New York - June 24, 2013