The Pellucid Perspective - January 2024 - 15

Jan Feb Mar
50%
38%
25%
13%
0%
-13%
34%
Golf Playable Hours 2024 Monthly % Chng vs. Year Ago
Aug Sep
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Oct
Nov
21%
Dec
41%
YtD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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14%
I
I
-6%
I
12%
6%
I
I
2%
I
-4%
-12%
I
I
3%
I
0%
I
I
2%
9%
12%
6%
I I I I I I
-5%
Source: Pellucid
In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or
GPH) so our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional, the 61 markets
or individual facility-specific figures, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program,
the Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level).
The above shows that December, for the 2nd consecutive month, was crazy-good coming in above 40% to the plus side compared
to '22 (which also handily beat the 10-yr Norm for those wondering whether it was due to " low base " ). That super result
lifted the YtD favorability by another full point to +3% to close the calendar year. We've seen the preview of the December rounds
from our Golf Market Research Center (GMRC) subscribers and they suggest that demand will follow the weather meaningfully
upward but can't hope to match the +42% GPH result which will produce another Utilization decline when we report those figures
next month (but we'd gladly take a " mere " +10% increase in rounds...). If you were a GMRC subscriber you'd already know both
your weather impact and Utilization for the month and YtD. If you want a look into our weather forecasting " crystal ball " for our
'24 year-ahead call at the national level (it's an encouraging number with an El Nino assist) you can get that by subscribing to our
Geographic Weather Impact tracking. For individual facilities, you can get our web-based, facility-specific weather forecast service
for the next 60 days by subscribing to Cognilogic Foresight (or subscribing to GMRC for facility owner/operators).
Pellucid Publications Membership
Jan Feb Mar
12.0%
9.0%
6.0%
3.0%
0.0%
-3.0%
-6.0%
-9.0%
-12.0%
May
Geographical Weather Impact
Jun Jul
6.4
Cognilogic
Utilization Rate 2023 Monthly Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Apr
4.4
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Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10.4
4.0
3.6
I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
6.1
-7.2
-10.3
Source: Golf Datatech & Pellucid
The above graphic represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (61%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
November's sizeable Utilization decline gave us our 1st meaningful Utilization drop since back in February; it's been a great run
and we couldn't have expected rounds to follow weather up by double-digits for the month so we'll take the hit without remorse.
This means that our monthly volatility scorecard reads 5 ups, 3 neutral and 3 downs resulting in the +1 point summary result for
the YtD period vs. YA. Jim's call for November Utilization " call " was -5-10 pts so he gets a star for that one. For December he's
going to go with a Utilization call of -10-15 pts (remember that's against +42% weather impact) which would anticipate a rounds
gain of 6-11%; we'll see. Our GMRC subscribers have already seen their December and full-year results from Golf Revenue down
to Discount Rate via the trend and scorecard views for their facility and the summary portfolio of GMRC participants; you too
could be in-the-know by inquiring here.
www.PellucidcorP.com
The Pellucid PersPecTive
15
1.1
YtD
The Pellucid Perspective - January 2024

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