World Grain - March 2008 - 35
FEATURE
supplies dwindling
H
ard red spring wheat futures prices and cash wheat premiums at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX)
have skyrocketed in recent weeks on mounting concerns that supply, at least of quality wheat of that class, will be
depleted before the 2008 crop begins to flow into marketing
channels. The March future in Minneapolis surged above $16
a bushel in mid-February, and the May future soared above
$14, levels never before seen in wheat.
On Feb. 9, MGEX, Kansas City Board of Trade and Chicago Board of Trade announced they would expand daily trading
limits effective Feb. 12 to 60¢ from the current 30¢ to accommodate the phenomenal volatility.
Record-high old-crop spring wheat futures prices thus far
have failed to ration demand so stocks can be stretched into
the new marketing year. New crop wheat futures prices set
record highs on Jan. 29 and seemed poised to break through
those levels. But it was uncertain whether new crop prices
were high enough to encourage producers in the United States
(U.S.) to seed more spring wheat this year than in 2007.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Feb. 8 forecast the carryover of hard red spring wheat on June 1, 2008,
at 73 million bushels, down 44 million bushels from the 2007
carryover of 117 million bushels. It would be the tightest car38
by Jay Sjerven and Arvin Donley
Record-high prices fail to slow
global demand for U.S. hard red
spring wheat
ryover of spring wheat in more than 60 years.
Additionally, a wheat carryover date of June 1 doesn't reflect the reality of the spring wheat market as the harvest in
the northern Plains only gets under way in July and new crop
spring wheat typically doesn't begin to flow into marketing
channels until the last week of July or the first couple of weeks
in August.
Compounding matters for wheat buyers have been cash
wheat premiums well above historical averages. The Minneapolis basis on 14% spring wheat was $4.25 over the Minneapolis May contract, a record premium leaving the cash price
for the benchmark for spring wheat at an eye-popping $18.20
per bushel. The cash wheat premium for 15% spring wheat
was $5 over. By themselves, these premiums were significantMarch 2008 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - March 2008
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - March 2008
Contents
World Grain - March 2008 - 1
World Grain - March 2008 - 2
World Grain - March 2008 - 3
World Grain - March 2008 - Contents
World Grain - March 2008 - 5
World Grain - March 2008 - 6
World Grain - March 2008 - 7
World Grain - March 2008 - 8
World Grain - March 2008 - 9
World Grain - March 2008 - 10
World Grain - March 2008 - 11
World Grain - March 2008 - 12
World Grain - March 2008 - 13
World Grain - March 2008 - 14
World Grain - March 2008 - 15
World Grain - March 2008 - 16
World Grain - March 2008 - 17
World Grain - March 2008 - 18
World Grain - March 2008 - 19
World Grain - March 2008 - 20
World Grain - March 2008 - 21
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World Grain - March 2008 - 24
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World Grain - March 2008 - 26
World Grain - March 2008 - 27
World Grain - March 2008 - 28
World Grain - March 2008 - 29
World Grain - March 2008 - 30
World Grain - March 2008 - 31
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World Grain - March 2008 - 33
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World Grain - March 2008 - 35
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