World Grain - April 2008 - 38

BIOFUELS QUARTERLY: EXPORTING DDGS

is expected to occur in the next three to
four years."
Pro Exporter, which provides economic research and analysis to agribusiness firms, forecasts DDGS production
in the U.S. to reach about 18 million
tonnes in the 2007-08 crop year, and
then jump to about 25 million tonnes for
2008-09, with about 10% of that figure
going to exports.
"There are two views on the potential
of future DDGS exports," Keefe said.
"One view is that exports will climb
along with DDGS production over
the next eight years and another view
is that they will flatten out at about 4
to 5 million tonnes. I subscribe to the
former.
"The main reason that I am more inclined to think that DDGS exports will
increase with production is that there
are freight costs to Asia that are actually
lower than some of the U.S. domestic

Keefe described the USDA numbers
as "a rather ambitious view of how
much DDGS can be absorbed by the
U.S. market."
Keefe noted that DDGS commonly replaces a big percentage of corn (maize)
in many animal diets. He said most companies that trade DDGS for domestic or
export have used corn prices as a guide

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"There are two views on the
potential of future DDGS exports. One view is that exports
will climb along with DDGS
production over the next
eight years and another view
is that they will flatten out at
about 4 to 5 million tonnes. I
subscribe to the former."

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Value and Service.
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U.S. Grains Council

feed market delivery freight costs, and
therefore these make DDGS very attractive in some of our export markets
in Asia, including, in the near future,
China and India."
Another projection from USDA shows
feed demand for DDGS in the U.S. rising dramatically from about 15 million
tonnes in 2006-07 to more than 35 million tonnes in 2009-10, then remaining
at around 35 million tonnes through
2016. It also assumes exports at around
4 to 5 million tonnes.

to hedge their DDGS positions due to
the close price relationship.
"Therefore, if we assume the close relationship with DDGS and corn in animal feed, we should assume similar consumption patterns," he said. "In the case
of corn, USDA is projecting a growth in
export demand looking forward to 2015,
so why would they not predict similar

*
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For more information, see Page 86.

www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / April 2008

39



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World Grain - April 2008

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - April 2008

Contents
World Grain - April 2008 - 1
World Grain - April 2008 - 2
World Grain - April 2008 - 3
World Grain - April 2008 - Contents
World Grain - April 2008 - 5
World Grain - April 2008 - 6
World Grain - April 2008 - 7
World Grain - April 2008 - 8
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