World Grain - August 2009 - 36

REGIONAL REVIEW: FOOD SUPPLY CHALLENGES

tonnes, an increase of 130% on the recordlow harvest of 2008," it said.
However, it also forecast recordlow winter-season wheat production
of about 12,000 tonnes, "reflecting
the high cost of fertilizers and quality
seeds, farmers' lack of financial liquid-

rand, it has managed to bring the rate
of inflation down to zero.
"Grain market reform includes free
movement and buying and selling of
grain in the country, removal of import
duties and designation of the government's Grain Marketing Board as a

"Liberalization of the grain market is the most important
change in a decade for the improvement of the agricultural
sector in Zimbabwe."
- Kisan Gunjal, FAO economist

ity, and the uncertainty of the electricity supply for irrigation," it said.
Faced with inflation that had reached
a high of 56%, Zimbabwe's government decided in March of this year to
abandon the Zimbabwe dollar and liberalize much of the economy. By using
the U.S. dollar and the South African

buyer of last resort to maintain a floor
price for maize and protect domestic
producers," the WFP said. "This has
filled the shops with products and reduced prices. Still, for most households
without access to foreign currency, basic necessities remain out of reach."
"Liberalization of the grain market is

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the most important change in a decade
for the improvement of the agricultural
sector in Zimbabwe," said FAO Economist Kisan Gunjal, co-leader of the UN
mission to Zimbabwe in early May that
produced the report. "But the full impact
of the reform on production next season
remains to be seen, especially in light of
financial liquidity constraints and other
problems of economic transition."
"This year's improved harvest comes
after two consecutive years of poor
production," said WFP's Jan Delbaere,
also a co-leader of the mission. "Having depleted their food stocks and sold
livestock and other assets to cope with
the effects of recent crises, many rural households are still struggling to
survive."
Total domestic cereal availability for
2009-10 is estimated in the WFP/FAO
report at 1.39 million tonnes, compared
with projected total utilization of 2.07
million, leaving an import requirement
of 680,000 tonnes. "To meet this gap,
cereal imports of about 500,000 tonnes,
mostly by the private sector, are expected, providing there are no import
restrictions," WFP said.
The report also contains a provisional estimate that about 2.8 million
people in Zimbabwe will face food
shortages in the 2009-10 marketing
year (April-March). It further estimates
that they will need 228,000 tonnes of
food aid, including 190,000 tonnes of
cereals.
According to the government-owned
newspaper, the Herald, Zimbabwe's liberalization of its market has helped the
millers. Victoria Foods, one of its big
three millers, has been able to increase
capacity utilization from 15% to 50%,
it said in a report at the end of May. Another of the three, National Foods, has
been able to increase its capacity usage
to around 45%, although the report did
not say from what level.
Chris Lyddon is World Grain's European editor. He
may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
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