World Grain - December 2009 - 46

FEATURE: FEEDING THE WORLD IN 2050

Arable land
1,800
1,600
million ha

1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600

World

Developing
countries

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1961

1970

400

Developed
countries

Source: Bruinsma, 2009.

live from subsistence agriculture, Diouf
stated, "There must be a special emphasis on smallholder farms. Judicious use
of chemical fertilizers is necessary. GDP
growth in agriculture is twice as effective in reducing poverty as compared to
general GDP growth."
University of California-Berkeley
professor Alain de Janvry pointed out
in his keynote address that agriculture
is generally underused in development.
"Agriculture produces a surplus that can
be invested in industry, but trade policy

is often antagonistic to agriculture," he
continued, citing the traditionally low
international prices for cereals that are
in part due to OECD subsidies.
The conference discussion papers
offered much data to demonstrate the
unexploited agricultural potential of Africa. The FAO estimates there are 700
million ha of unexploited arable land
in Africa. Less than one quarter of the
land suitable for rain-fed agriculture is
now used. The guinea savanna zone is
600 million ha in size, similar in many

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ways to the Brazilian cerrado, but only
10% farmed. Africa applies an average
of only 13 kilograms (kg) of fertilizer
per ha, compared to a global average of
73 kg, and 190 kg in East Asia.
Javier Blas, the Financial Times'
commodities correspondent, asked rhetorically, "Will the developing world
remain in misery and sorrow?" and
then commented, "There were mid-50s
doomsday projections for rice, but production more than doubled from 260
million tonnes to 600 million tonnes."
With that said, it is clear that the area
under rice cultivation in Asia will decline due to dietary changes taking place
in many countries. Population growth in
East and Southeast Asia will be only
11% by 2050, and per capita rice consumption is falling in many countries. In
Thailand, it has dropped from 130 kg to
less than 100 kg in less than 10 years,
according to Kwanchai A. Gomez, director of The Asia Rice Foundation.
Africa, on the other hand, is likely
to see a big increase in land under rice
cultivation in order to replace or slow
burgeoning rice imports in many countries. Much of the foreign investment
now taking place in agriculture on the
continent is for the creation of large
rice plantations throughout the sub-Sa-

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AUGERS

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For more information, see Page 70.

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