World Grain - July 2010 - 65

FEATURE

Forecast holds for
global flour trade record
W

orld exports of wheat flour in
2009-10 were once again forecast at a record 12.6 million
tonnes of wheat equivalent in an updated report just issued by the International
Grains Council (IGC). While the trade
total was unchanged from the previous
forecast of last February, significant revisions were made for both exporting
and importing countries.
Among the significant changes was
an upward revision in prospective U.S.
flour exports in 2009-10, now placed
at 450,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent,
compared with 300,000 in the previous
forecast. The IGC said the increase reflected "larger than expected shipments,
particularly to Pakistan, the United Arab
Emirates and Kenya."
At 450,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent,
equal to 7.2 million cwts of flour, U.S. exports compared with 314,000 in 2008-09
and would be the largest since 479,000
were shipped in 2007-08. While up substantially from the previous low point,
U.S. flour exports still lagged the major
flour exporters by a major degree.
World flour exports of 12.6 million
tonnes of wheat equivalent would be
up 3% from 12,256,000 in 2008-09
and were 6% more than 11,849,000
tonnes exported in 2007-08. This year's
trade aggregate would be up 18% from
10,694,000 in 2006-07. Three straight
crop years of increases brought the new
record in global flour shipments.
Along with the 125,000-tonne increase
in prospective U.S. flour exports in 200910, gains of 200,000 tonnes each were
forecast for exports by Argentina and Turwww.World-Grain.com / World Grain / July 2010

by Morton I. Sosland

Latest IGC report also includes significant
revisions for exporting and importing countries
key. Most of Argentina's flour shipments
head for neighboring Brazil, and Turkey's mills have continued to supply Iraq.
Among major decreases in prospective
exports were 150,000 tonnes for Russia
and 100,000 for Ukraine and the E.U.
Kazakhstan's rank as the world's leading flour exporting country was maintained, with shipments once again fore-

World flour exports
(1,000 tonnes, wheat equivalent)
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01

12,600
12,256
11,851
10,696
10,845
10,158
8,666
9,900
8,231
8,494

Source: International Grains Council

cast at 3 million tonnes of wheat equivalent, compared with 2,733,000 in 200809 and 2,054,000 in 2007-08. The latter
was the first year in which this one-time
member of the Former Soviet Union became the world's leading flour exporter.
Neighboring Uzbekistan provided the

principal outlet for Kazakhstan flour exports, the total of that nation's imports
forecast by the IGC at 1.4 million tonnes
of wheat equivalent. Such imports were
up 100,000 from the prior projection and
compare with 1,222,000 tonnes in 200809 and 919,000 in 2007-08.
Ranking second in flour exports was
Turkey, with its outgo now placed at
2.5 million tonnes of wheat equivalent,
compared with 2,161,000 in 2008-09.
The E.U. and Argentina tied for third
place in flour exporting, with the outgo
for each forecast at 1.3 million tonnes of
wheat equivalent.
The Argentine outgo would be near
the same as in the prior crop year, while
E.U. shipments at this level would
be down 12% from 1,482,000 tonnes
shipped in 2008-09.
When it comes to import destinations,
Afghanistan was again the leading market. According to the IGC, this country's imports in 2009-10 will reach 1.6
million tonnes, against 1,409,000 in the
prior season and 922,000 in 2007-08.
Uzbekistan held second place as a
flour export destination, accounting for
1.4 million tonnes, against 1,222,000 in
2008-09.
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World Grain - July 2010

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