World Grain - January 2011 - 60

FEATURE: SHIPPING COSTS LIKELY TO FALL FURTHER

Baltic Exchange Handysize Index

1,550
1,450
1,350
Index

1,250
1,150
1,050
950
850
10/19/2010

09/01/2010

07/14/2010

05/26/2010

04/07/2010

02/18/2010

750

01/04/2010

wheat in the September-August shipping year are forecast to
reach 1.277 billion, which will be 343 million, or 37%, more
than last year," said the analyst in its latest export focus report.
"The U.S. wheat export forecast will be a 15-year high,
resulting from global crop problems rather than an increase
in demand. Like the 2007-08 export surge, this year's wheat
forecast is more of an aberration than a new trend."
The analyst said that the composition of exports had been
altered over the past few years now that soybeans were playing a more prominent role in the export equation.
"For a number of years it was corn and wheat that represented about three-quarters of total exports. Now soybeans
represent one-third of total exports, up from averaging less
than one-fifth about a decade ago," said the report.
Looking forward, Eriksen said the key supply and demand factors for U.S. exports included the rising price of crude, improved
ethanol margins, crop shortages globally, and higher input costs.
"This year's crop harvest struggled through high heat, leading to a smaller-than-expected crop," he said. "Grain and oilseed prices are highly volatile, moving with any perceived
demand story, weather event out of South America - for example, the potential for a La Nina - and changes to renewable fuel policy to name a few.

Source: Baltic Exchange

"The acreage battle for next year is well under way with
corn finding a bit of an upper hand. But with fertilizer prices strengthening, this takes some of the enthusiasm away
from corn.
"Historically high cotton prices have attracted some inter-

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61



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World Grain - January 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - January 2011

Contents
World Grain - January 2011 - 1
World Grain - January 2011 - 2
World Grain - January 2011 - 3
World Grain - January 2011 - Contents
World Grain - January 2011 - 5
World Grain - January 2011 - 6
World Grain - January 2011 - 7
World Grain - January 2011 - 8
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