World Grain - March 2012 - 44

FEATURE: AFGHANISTAN’S WHEAT POTENTIAL

may reduce its availability in adjacent communities, resulting in conﬂict. Water rights have been a complicating factor in the development of Afghanistan’s surface-water irrigation sys-

further be increased by improving and diversifying crop rotations beyond the typical wheat/rice or wheat/corn cycle. The ERS noted that although it’s not possible to project exactly what will

Improved inputs, including better seed varieties and fertilizer, will help Afghanistan increase its wheat yields.

tems, ERS said. Programs to harness water may also cause tension with neighboring countries. Water tables in the nation are already falling, requiring deeper wells. Shifting toward greater agricultural usage of ground water is risky and will likely come at the cost of human consumption, ERS said. Improved inputs, including better seed varieties and fertilizer, will help Afghanistan increase its wheat yields. In instances where Afghan farmers received improved seed varieties, the average yield increased signiﬁcantly. For example, a program in 2002-03 that provided 200,000 farmers in 13 provinces with fertilizer resulted in average wheat yields of 4 tonnes per hectare. Other studies show that wheat yield can

happen with the Afghan wheat market, it has developed projections through 2020 of the nation’s domestic wheat production, imports and consumption based on different scenarios of future growth. All three scenarios assume a real GDP growth rate of 6%, an annual population growth rate of 2.3% and stocks of wheat and ﬂour are assumed to be negligible. In addition, trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan continues, with the prices of wheat and ﬂour in Afghanistan tracking with Pakistan’s release price. Projected wheat consumption does not differ from scenario to scenario. The critical distinction among the three scenarios, the ERS said, is the assumed rates of yield growth. In the ﬁrst scenario, domestic prices of wheat and ﬂour show no growth in real terms

from 2010-20. Per capita ﬂour demand would grow 1.2% per year over the same period, due to growth in per capita GDP and stability in ﬂour prices. Total demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.5% to 8.4 million tonnes in 2020. Projected consumption increases would not be as rapid as in the past decade, but the growth in demand would still exceed projected increases in output. Farmers would rely on functioning seed and fertilizer markets to expand the share of land cultivated with improved seed varieties. Under this scenario, the national average yield would grow at an annual rate of 0.9%, from 1.57 tonnes per hectare in the base period to 1.72 tonnes per hectare in 2020. The yield increases would not require an increase in the proportion of land that is irrigated or an increase in yields on rainfed areas. The national projected yield average of 1.72 tonnes per hectare is above the 2002-09 average yields for Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but below all other countries in the region. Area cultivated to wheat in Afghanistan would be higher in 2020 than in the base period. Area and yield would grow at annual rates of 1.3% and 0.9%,

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World Grain - March 2012

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