World Grain - July 2022 - 60
will history
repeat itself?
This summer's weather in North America bearing close resemblance to 1956
by Drew Lerner
C
limatologists and meteorologists are constantly
looking at historical weather data for clues
about future events. The atmosphere is so complicated,
though, there are only a few occasions when
weather repeats itself and we may be in such a moment.
The atmosphere and oceans are constantly in flux.
Temperatures of the air and water change daily, but
they do it at different levels so that it is virtually impossible
to see the same pattern repeated without some
variation. Some of the patterns noted only last a few
hours, some a few days and others a few weeks or even
over a full season. However, in most cases, when a pattern
begins to repeat it is usually knocked out of sync
with the past very quickly by other influences. That is
the primary reason why weather forecasters cannot get
the weather exactly right.
The atmosphere is much like a fluid, but there are
many small and large eddies of circulation at every level
of the atmosphere and on each level there are multiple
Precipitation comparison: 1956 and 2022
weather events occurring at the same time surrounding
the world. Despite the frustration most people have
over the weather, forecasters are doing much better in
the short- and medium-range forecasts with the help of
supercomputers that can process data at a phenomenal
rate. However, even with these emerging capabilities,
it may be a long time before seasonal outlooks become
reliable. There are times in the midst of the atmospheric
chaos that sudden periods of orderly weather evolve
and when that happens an analog appears that can help
forecasters predict the weather. Some of these analogs
are much better than others, but one such analog has
emerged for a possible parallel to North America's
weather this summer. That analog year is 1956.
The reason why 1956 stands out as an interesting candidate
is because of its position in the solar cycle (two
years after the minimum) and its influence by a multiyear
La Niña event and a significant negatively phased
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Each of these influ60
July
2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
http://www.World-Grain.com
World Grain - July 2022
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - July 2022
World Grain - July 2022 - Intro
World Grain - July 2022 - 1
World Grain - July 2022 - 2
World Grain - July 2022 - 3
World Grain - July 2022 - 4
World Grain - July 2022 - 5
World Grain - July 2022 - 6
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