Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 4th Quarter 2014 - 11


Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics
ronment in which intermodal will have
to "earn" additional loads from the
highway, rather than the more predictable diversions resulting from a major
truck capacity shortage that forces
volume onto the rail.

U.S. and Canadian Domestic
Economies
Total 2014 GDP growth came in at
2.4%, just above the 2.2% recorded
in 2013, but it's worth remembering
how volatile growth was over the
year. The first quarter saw a strong
decline in GDP due to the effects of an
exceptionally harsh winter. This trend
turned around in Q2 and Q3; GDP
growth in both of those quarters was
nearly 5.0% on an annualized basis.
There was hope that Q4 would be another strong quarter, but these hopes
were dashed when Q4 GDP growth
came in at just 2.6% annualized.
Net exports were a big drag on
Q4 GDP subtracting a full percentage point from GDP growth. The U.S.
dollar strengthened significantly near
the end of 2014, encouraging imports
and discouraging exports. Still, not
all of the decline in net exports can
be placed on the dollar. There are
numerous signs that global demand
is slowing in several major economies
including China's, leading to a reduction in demand for U.S. exports.
The stronger U.S. dollar and global
weakness have also pushed down
energy prices quite substantially. As a
result, consumers are paying less for
gas and keeping more money in their
pockets. Perhaps because of the decline in oil prices, consumer spending
performed particularly well in Q4. Total
consumer spending gained 4.6% on an
annualized basis in Q4, well above the
3.2% recorded in the previous quarter.
Canada's economy has also been
roiled by fluctuations in energy prices
and exchange rates. A stronger U.S.
dollar makes Canadian produced
goods more competitive. Yet, the
decline in oil prices has hit Canada's
energy extraction industry hard.
Certainly, the Canadian Central Bank is
concerned about current conditions.
The Central Bank cut the overnight
target rate to .75% in January from
1.0% where it had been for several

U.S. Economic Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (SAAR)
Gross Domestic Product (SAAR)
Merchandise Imports (SAAR)

Merchandise Imports - Mfg. (vs. LY)
Industrial Production (SAAR)
IndustrialUtilization - Mfg. (vs. LY)
Capacity Production - Mfg.

Capacity Utilization - Mfg.vs. LY)
Retail Sales (Excl. Autos,
Retail Sales (Excl. Autos, vs. LY)
Inventory/Sales Ratio - All Business
Inventory/Sales(Millions, SAAR)
Housing Starts Ratio - All Business
Housing Starts (Millions,(1973=100)
Trade Weighted Value $ SAAR)
Trade Weighted Value $ (1973=100)

13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4
13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4
3.5% -2.1% 4.6% 5.0% 2.6%
3.5% -2.1% 12.5% -1.3% 2.6%
0.9% 2.5% 4.6% 5.0% 9.8%
0.9% 2.5% 12.5% -1.3% 4.8%
3.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.6% 9.8%
3.2% 2.4% 3.8% 4.6% 4.8%
77.0% 76.9% 77.8% 78.3% 78.9%
77.0% 76.9% 77.8% 78.3% 78.9%
2.6% 1.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.0%
2.6%
1.29
1.29
1.03

1.03
84.45
84.45

1.6%
1.30
1.30
0.93

0.93
85.64
85.64

3.6%
1.29
1.29
0.99

0.99
85.13
85.13

Canadian Economic Indicators

3.6%
1.30
1.30
1.03

1.03
85.60
85.60

3.0%
1.29
1.29
1.07

1.07
89.05
89.05

13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4
13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4
2.9% 1.0% 3.6% 2.8% 1.6%
Gross Domestic Product (SAAR)
2.9% 1.0% 3.6% 2.8% 1.6%
Gross Domestic Product (SAAR)
1.4% -4.8% 9.8% 4.0% 3.6%
Imports (SAAR)
1.4% -4.8% 9.8% 4.0% 3.6%
Imports (SAAR)
3.7% 0.9% 19.0% 6.9% 4.3%
Exports (SAAR)
3.7% 0.9% 19.0% 6.9% 4.3%
Exports (SAAR)
3.3% 2.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0%
Industrial Production - Mfg. (vs. LY)
3.3% 2.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0%
Industrial Production - Mfg. (vs. LY)
4.0% 4.2% 5.2% 4.8% 5.6%
Retail Sales (vs. Last Year)
4.0% 4.2% 5.2% 4.8% 5.6%
Retail Sales (vs. Last Year)
173.4 180.3 185.9 189.7 187.3
Housing Starts (Thousands, SAAR)
173.4 180.3 185.9 189.7 187.3
Housing Starts (Thousands, SAAR)
$0.953 $0.906 $0.917 $0.918 $0.881
U.S. $ / Canadian $
SAAR =Canadian $ Adjusted Annual Rate of growth from prior quarter.Some
$0.953 $0.906 $0.917 $0.918 $0.881
U.S. $ / Seasonally
Q4 2014 figures are preliminary estimates.
months. Considering that energy
prices continue to fall, it may be too
early to estimate the total impact of
energy prices on Canada's economy.
U.S. and Canadian Container Trade.
The Q4 container import numbers
came in unexpectedly positive. These
same numbers had surprised on the
upside in both Q2 and Q3. Some analysts thought that the strong Q2 and
Q3 numbers were because shippers
were simply moving goods earlier than
usual and that there would be substantial give back in Q4. Yet, U.S. container
imports gained 4.7% over the previous
year in Q4, bringing full-year container
import growth to 3.7%.
One notable trend in the container
import numbers is the strength of the
East Coast. Container import growth
through U.S. East Coast ports came
to 8.7% over the whole of 2014, more
than twice the 3.7% recorded by U.S.
West Coast ports. Much of the increase
in East Coast volumes came from East
Asia. Indeed, the all-water share of
transpacific imports jumped to 30.6%
in 2014, compared to 28.8% in 2013.

Fourth Quarter/Year-End 2014  © IANA 2015

Container export numbers are not
yet available for Q4. However, port released figures suggest that exports did
much worse than imports. Container
exports through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are expected to
fall by more than 10.0% in Q4. Exports
through East Coast ports saw smaller
declines and indeed may even show a
slight gain for Q4. Weak demand from
Asia is likely hitting West Coast container exports much harder than East
Coast.
Canadian container exports are also
not yet fully available, but the results
that have been published suggest a
similar trend to the U.S. Imports are
likely growing at a much quicker pace
than exports. For example, over Q3,
container imports through Canada's
West Coast ports jumped 9.3%, while
exports declined 4.5%. In contrast to
the U.S., Canada's West Coast imports
are fairing better than its East Coast
imports. However East Coast exports
likely did much better than West Coast
exports, most probably because of the
West Coast's exposure to Asia.
11
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 4th Quarter 2014

2014 Intermodal Recap
4Q 2014 Rail Volume
Key Corridor Results
Regional Traffic
Seasonally Adjusted Intermodal Volume
4Q 2014 IMC Results
Intermodal Long-Term Trends
Intermodal Outlook
Trucking Industry Outlook
U.S. and Canadian Domestic Economies
Monthly Traffic by Type
Monthly Traffic by Ownership
Eastern Canada
Mountain Central
Midwest
Northeast
Northwest
South Central
Southeast
Southwest
Western Canada
Major Intermodal Corridors
Notes to Report
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 4th Quarter 2014
