The Pellucid Perspective - October 2015 - (Page 14)

Market focus Miami golf OK, but no day at the beach Miami FL Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) I n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets, which is based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand. Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-perAvailable Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 14th healthiest market, the Miami Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). Home of the Cruise Capital of the World, South Beach and an incredibly diverse population with a Latin America flair, it's also home to great golf, much of it private as we'll see in the analysis below (but also offering a reasonable variety of fare for us "public-access folk"). Blessed with a 12-month season (some residents might debate that given the July-August temps and heat indices), Miami's got lots to offer in terms of golf and that's something which is a major draw to the significant snowbird population, much of it from New York. By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), the Miami CBSA ranks number 6 among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 7M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both full-year resident, snowbird and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that the Miami CBSA is home to a relatively modest local golfer base of roughly 481K golfers (7th ranking in the US, remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourist crowd). That golfer base is served by a healthy supply amount of 232 18-hole equivalents (EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 2.1K local resident golfers per EHE, well above the national average. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to Private at 52% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%. The Private vs. Public access balance is 52%/48%, again out of balance vs. the national average of 27%/73%. (There's not much Public-Premium; the overabundance of Private sucks most of the higher end "oxygen" out of the market). The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 73%/27%, which is also out of line vs. the 50%/50% national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf (which removes the huge Private bias influence), the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 27%/52%/22% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24% which shows, outside of the Private skew, that the Public-access, regulation supply skew is towards the affordable golf segments vs. the US benchmark. Remember that in this particular analysis Pellucid allows the definitions of Pre- 14 The Pellucid PersPecTive Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Learning & Practice Miami FL CBSA Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline* - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline* - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* ** - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole vs. ks) (EHE) Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) Future Facility Tot US Index vs. US 480.7 22,900 232 14,672 2,076 1,561 133 52% 11% 21% 9% 6% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 194 48 76 57 104 4% -14% 9% -12% 43 122 -18% -21% 88 29.7 33.8 88 38% 56% $1,611 $1,155 $21 $19 68 139 111 * Inverse index, lower is better ** Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) October 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - October 2015

TOC
Bureaucracy torpedoes 2 course construction projects
Affordable golf: What’s the problem?
PGA TOUR “Changing of the Guard:” Can the young guns revive participation and demand?
Diners and golfers alike bring new service expectations to the table today
September golf weather impact: A “push” for the month vs. ’14
Miami golf OK, but no day at the beach

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