Food Business News - August 2, 2011 - 52

Ingredient Markets
Market commentary for one-week period ended July 29, 2011

Wheat Futures
Prices of wheat futures traded lower at last week’s outset, bounced back during midweek trading but turned down again at the week’s end to ﬁnish with losses. Lateweek weakness signaled the end of a threeweek upturn, which, in its turn, arrested a steep ﬁve-week decline. Corn futures often lead wheat markets during the summer, but they provided little direction until they also turned lower at the week’s end. Late-week rain across the Corn Belt pressured that market. A weaker dollar argued for higher commodity prices, but no one in the grain markets seemed to listen. Gold, however, traded to new record highs. With Congress fumbling in efforts to ﬁnd a deal to resolve the imbroglio over raising the debt ceiling and with new data indicating continued slow growth in the economy, equity markets weakened and many other markets groped for direction. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its weekly Crop Progress report indicated the winter wheat harvest was 75% completed by July 24 compared with 80% as the recent ﬁve-year average for the date. Spring wheat progress continued to lag normal with 83% headed in the six key states by July 24 compared with 95% as the average. Spring wheat condition was rated 74% good to

excellent, up one percentage point from the previous week. The Wheat Quality Council spring wheat tour produced an estimate of 2011 otherspring wheat yield at 41.5 bus per acre, down from 46.1 bus per acre as last year’s U.S. other-spring wheat yield and 44 bus per acre as the 2010 North Dakota average spring wheat yield. Tour participants reported signiﬁcant disease pressure at some locations. There were concerns about ﬁnal spring wheat protein and quality. The U.S.D.A. indicated net export sales of U.S. wheat during the week ended July 21 totaled 473,800 tonnes, up 38% from the previous week and up 3% from the prior four-week average. Last week, though, Egypt, Jordan and Syria bought Russian wheat; Egypt alone bought 360,000 tonnes. The International Grains Council projected 2011-12 world wheat ending stocks at 190 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from its June forecast and only down 2 million tonnes from 2010-11. FBN

Millfeed
Prices remained historically high for the summer in many markets, although the effects of heat on reducing feed demand increased, and values eased late in the week. Supplies were still mostly tight. Adding to supply woes, ﬂour grind was less than robust.

Demand from the Southwest continued to drive the market with one trader calling Texas a “black hole into which feed ingredients are disappearing at any price.” Drought across most of Texas and Oklahoma and parts of nearby states has burned pastures and crops and created a huge demand for supplemental feed, even as ranchers were selling livestock across the region, which may come to bear on feed demand later in the year. Nearby values advanced nominally $5@15 a ton in the Southwest with spot material mostly unavailable. Shipments of millfeed into the Southwest from other regions supported prices in the latter. At the same time, continued excessive heat had a greater effect on dampening feed demand in some areas, especially in Central states where feed mixers requested numerous delays and nearby supply was building, complicated by difﬁculty getting freight to other regions. Trading in deferred periods remained light. Wheat germ prices were steady to ﬁrm. Millfeed was $195 a ton Kansas City and $186 Minneapolis on a rail basis compared with corn at $249 a ton and sorghum at $213 a ton, both K.C. Corn gluten feed was $190 a ton and distillers’ dried grain was $205 a ton, both up $5, and dehydrated alfalfa held at $235 a ton, all K.C. FBN

Wheat futures
$ per bu; change in cents per bu July 29 Kansas City September December March May Chicago September December March May Minneapolis September December March May 7.67 7.93 8.06½ 8.11¼ 6.72½ 7.15¾ 7.46¾ 7.62½ 8.30¾ 8.31½ 8.40¼ 8.42½ — Change from — Week’s July 22 July 15 High Low -13c -11¼c -10¼c -10¼c -19¾c -15¼c -16¾c -19c -7¾c -10¼c -11½c -13c +2½c +3¼c +2½c +1¼c -22¼c -7¾c -7½c -9¾c +7c +6c +2¾c +2¼c 7.99½ 8.25¼ 8.39¼ 8.43¾ 7.14¾ 7.54¾ 7.85¼ 7.98½ 8.62 8.62 8.71 8.74 7.59½ 7.84½ 7.97¾ 8.05 6.71½ 7.11 7.43½ 7.62½ 8.18½ 8.21½ 8.31½ 8.36 Year ago 6.74½ 6.91½ 7.06½ 7.09½ 6.61½ 6.93¾ 7.13½ 7.14½ 6.87¾ 7.02¾ 7.18½ 7.26½ High 10.20¾ 10.34 10.14¼ 10.01½ 9.71½ 9.86¾ 9.54¾ 9.25½ 10.55¼ 10.55¼ 10.55¾ 10.56 Season’s Low (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (02-09-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) (05-26-11) 5.42 5.59½ 5.03 5.15¼ 5.60½ 4.72¾ 5.05 5.21 5.65 5.14 5.32¼ 5.43¼ (06-09-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-09-10) (06-08-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-11-10) (06-10-10) (06-09-10) (06-09-10)

Kansas City wheat futures
September contract, $ per bu
10.50 8.50 6.50 4.50 J O J Previous Year A Current Year

Week's changewheat futures Chicago (cents per bu) ..........……....... -30.5

September contract, $ per bu
$10.25 $8.75 $7.25 $5.75

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted Spot Kansas City 195 @ 203 Southwest, f.o.b. truck 220 @ 230 Minneapolis 186 @ 194 Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 182 @ 190 Chicago West 199 @ 207 Central states, f.o.b truck 178 @ 185 Buffalo 145 @ 155 Southeast 155 @ 160 N. & S. California 189 @ 204 Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 185 @ 200 Paciﬁc Northwest 165 @ 170 Upper Midwest, sacked 290 Wheat germ 260 @ 310 — Change from — Year Aug. July 22 July 15 ago 194@ 200 +7 @ +8 +24 @ +20 62 @ 66 215@ 220 +15 @ +15 +25 @ +20 72 @ 77 184@ 192 +5 @ +6 +10 @ +8 79 @ 84 180@ 188 +5 @ +6 +10 @ +8 75 @ 80 197@ 205 +5 @ +6 +10 @ +8 92 @ 97 173@ 180 -2 @ -2 +3 @ 0 67 @ 72 140@ 150 -3 @ -3 -2 @ -2 49 @ 55 150@ 155 -2 @ -5 0 @ -3 52 @ 57 172@ 187 +1 @ +1 +3 @ +3 104 @ 119 168@ 183 +1 @ +1 +3 @ +3 100 @ 115 165@ 170 — +5 @ +5 90 @ 100 Sept. 182@ 188 197@ 202 184@ 192 180@ 188 197@ 205 168@ 178 135@ 145 145@ 150 159@ 174 155@ 170 165@ 170 Oct.-Dec. 166 @ 172 181 @ 186 164 @ 174 160 @ 170 177 @ 187 160 @ 170 130 @ 140 140 @ 145 154 @ 169 150 @ 165 160 @ 165 Jan.-Mar. 168 @ 174 183 @ 188 164 @ 174 160 @ 170 177 @ 187 165 @ 175 130 @ 140 …@ … …@ … …@ … …@ …
J O J Previous Year A Current Year

$4.25

WMinneapolis wheat ) k' h g ( t b futures

30½
$10.50 $8.50 $6.50 $4.50

September contract, $ per bu

J

O

J Previous Year

A Current Year

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August 2, 2011
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