IEEE Electrification Magazine - March 2017 - 75

limited mass appeal. But, in 2012, the
Tesla Model S represented a significant departure to a new kind of
EV customer (Figure 5). The Model S
is a large, fully equipped five-seater
and the opposite of the kind of car
the major OEMs had been using for
compliance purposes. It is in the luxury sedan segment. The genius of the
product offering is that it allowed
Tesla to offer an EV without a large
cost disparity to the existing market
because the incumbent market was
also made at relatively low volumes
and also had pricey propulsion systems. In addition, at the large luxury
sedan price points and with improved Li-ion batteries, 200-300-mi
range cars could be offered.
The Model S was a surprise (for
many) success relative to the other
sedans. It immediately made a big
impact on the sales of competing large
luxury cars. Today, it is by far the largest seller in the United States in its segment, with almost twice the volume
of the runner-up Mercedes S-Class
(Figure 6). All of its competitors are gaspowered cars. The competitive response
to the Tesla S has not yet arrived from
the impacted luxury OEMs, but each
has promised a response.
In the third era, the entry and
midsize segments have also seen disruption. Chevy has begun selling the
Bolt with volume expectations and
regions beyond simply ZEV compliance. The Bolt offers an EPA-adjusted
range of 238 mi and a price that is
US$30,000 after federal incentives.
This sets a new benchmark for an
entry-segment EV. A new Nissan Leaf,
Tesla Model 3, and other EVs are
expected in the entry or midsize segments with very useful ranges and
affordable prices during this era. The
improved economics and performance are due to the continued
maturation of Li-ion energy batteries
and other enabling technologies.
Also, vehicle use cases are evolving in
the third era that may be positive.
So, what is the outlook today for
the key new technologies we will see

Signs
Point to
Yes

Reply Hazy
Try
Again

Figure 5. Era 3 Magic 8 Ball reply. (Images courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

in the current and next EV product
cycles? Let me give some perspective
on what we might expect.

Batteries
According to most sources, between
2012 and today, the energy density of
leading Li-ion cells has doubled and
the cost per unit energy has fallen by
70%. This is astounding progress and
reason alone to think that Era 3 may
end differently than Era 2. Some analysts say that there is rampant overcapacity and that battery companies are
competing to reduce sunk cost losses
by utilizing more capacity, and true
cost projections are not as rosy as one
might believe based on spot prices.
There is great competition between
companies and their technologies.
There may be a shake-out of weaker

players; it has been widely reported
that Nissan may sell off their AESC
stake, once believed to be the leading
automotive Li-ion company. But
announced cost projections from GM
and Tesla indicate the improvements
will continue (Figure 7).
Improvements in the Li-ion nickel-
cobalt-aluminum and nickel-cobalt-
manganese formulations, cell designs,
components, and chemistries are
principally responsible for the great
dividends of improved energy densities and costs. All battery makers will
tell you that there is more to come in
enabling technical improvements of
Li-ion batteries. Innovations in battery
cell packaging, battery electrode
chemistries, manufacturing knowhow, battery cell separator technologies, battery electrolytes, and controls

U.S. Large Luxury Sedan Sales, Q3 2016
Tesla Model S
Mercedes CLS-Class
Lexus LS
Audi A8
Mercedes S-Class
Maserati Ghibli
Porsche Panamera
Jaguar XJ
BMW 7-Series
Audi A7
BMW 6-Series
Maserati Quattroporte
Figure 6. The sales of U.S. large luxury sedans in the third quarter of 2016.

IEEE Electrific ation Magazine / march 2 0 1 7

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Electrification Magazine - March 2017