Milling & Baking News - June 9, 2015 - 25

Another small increase for world flour
exports forecast for 2015-16 season
LONDON - For the third crop year
in a row world trade in wheat flour in
2015-16 was forecast by the International Grains Council to post a slight
gain over the previous season. The
initial I.G.C. forecast for the year just
getting under way was 13,500,000
tonnes in wheat equivalent, compared
with 13,310,000 in 2014-15, 13,130,000
tonnes in 2013-14 and 12,650,000
tonnes in 2012-13.
The latter year was a recent low
point in global flour trade, and it followed 2011-12 when the shipment
total reached the all-time record of
14,560,000 tonnes. The latter, equal to
about 230 million cwts of wheat flour,
compared with the forecast for 2015-16
equal to about 215 million cwts of flour.
Once again placed in the lead of
global flour exporting this new crop
year were two countries each accounting for about 19% of world trade. Kazakhstan has a slight edge in the initial
forecast for 2015-16, with its outgo in
the new season projected at 2,750,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent, against
2,500,000 in 2014-15 and 2,762,000 in
2013-14. The new forecast for Turkey
was 2,650,000 tonnes, against 2,520,000
in 2014-15 and 3,353,000 in 2013-14.
Standing out in export flour trade
was the emergence of Iran as a major
shipper. Its likely clearances for 2015-16
were raised to 950,000 tonnes, contrasted with 800,000 shipped in the preceding season. Prior to 2014-15, Iran flour
exports were usually less than 100,000
tonnes. The I.G.C. noted that Iran flour
exports benefited from proximity to
major import markets like Afghanistan,
Uzbekistan, Iraq and Syria.
In discussing the small world trade
gain in prospect for 2015-16, the I.G.C.
cited the effect of smaller domestic
wheat harvests in several major flour
importing nations. The crop prospect
particularly affected flour imports by
Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq imports
in 2015-16 were forecast at 1,550,000
tonnes of wheat equivalent, against
1,450,000 imported in 2014-15 and
1,477,000 in 2013-14. Its wheat imports
also were rising.
Imports of flour by Afghanistan
were placed at 1,350,000 tonnes of
wheat equivalent, compared with
1,300,000 in 2014-15 and 1,249,000 in
2013-14.
The other nation importing more
than 1 million tonnes of wheat flour
in grain equivalent is Uzbekistan, and
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

its takings in 2015-16 were forecast
at 1,300,000, against 1,230,000 in the
prior crop season. Here, too, the I.G.C.
cited "tighter local supplies of wheat."
Syria also was seen as maintaining its
expanded flour imports, again taking
700,000 tonnes in 2015-16, against
525,000 in 2013-14. In prior
years, Syria rarely imported
as much as 100,000 tonnes.
The Council noted that Syria's
wheat crop this year was expected to be below average in
size and that its flour milling capacity had been reduced as a result of
internal conflicts in that country.
In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil
and Bolivia continued as major flour
markets. Brazil's imports in 2015-16
were projected at 650,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous season. Bolivia's imports also were seen as being
maintained at 250,000.
U.S. flour imports were projected for
2015-16 at 230,000 tonnes, unchanged

Exports and Trade Issues

from the previous season.
Angola, forecast to take 640,000
tonnes of flour in grain equivalent in
2015-16, stands out as the principal
flour importer in Africa.
"Solid third country demand" was
credited with helping to maintain E.U.
flour exports.
Through the end of the 20th century,
the European Union was usually
the leader in flour exporting,
instead of Kazakhstan or
Turkey, the current leaders.
At times in the past century,
U.S. flour exports vied with
the E.U. for leadership and in
many seasons ranked as second in global flour shipments.
Thus, in 1999-00, E.U. flour exports
totaled 4,374,000 tonnes, accounting
for 45% of the global total, and U.S.
shipments were 1,399,000 tonnes, or
15% of the aggregate.
In the 2015-16 projections, the E.U.
was estimated to ship 1 million tonnes,
down from 1,040,000 in 2014-15. U.S.
flour exports in 2015-16 were forecast
at 300,000 tonnes, against 320,000 in
2014-15. MBN

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Milling & Baking News XJune 9, 2015 / 25

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Milling & Baking News - June 9, 2015

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