Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016 - 4

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2011-2014
U.S. inflation adjusted gross domestic product should total 16.45 trillion dollars in 2015 complimenting a 2.29 percent
compounded annual growth rate from 2011 - 14, and real growth over 2014. Since the economic recovery began in
2010, the U.S. economy has realized favorable changes in key economic data noted in the chart below. Some of
the most notable changes in the 4 year compounded growth rates occurred in motor vehicle parts manufacturing
(11.07%), retail sales (4.58%) and disposable income (3.35%).
Unlike in last year's report, the U.S. dollar has increased favorably against most of the world's major currencies and is
expected to remain strong in 2015. The U.S. national debt continues to grow in real and nominal terms and presents a
burden to the U.S. taxpayers and hinders economic growth. A strengthening U.S. dollar in the second half of 2014 and into
2015 reduces the cost of foreign imports ranging from oil and steel to minerals and automobiles. However, a more valuable
U.S. dollar means that many U.S. exports will cost more to purchase. Consumer confidence is expected to continue to
trend upward in 2015, from its Great Recession low of below 50 in 2009, yet still shy of its recent high of 110 in 2006.
This summary was prepared by Dr. Timothy G. Nash, Vice President and the Fry Endowed professor in Free market
Economics at Northwood University.

Key Economic Indicators
(Billions of chained 2009 Dollars, unless otherwise noted)
2012

2013

2014

2015
Estimate

$15,052.4
$15,517.9
3.2%
$15,222.9
98.1%
$10,263.5
$1,151.5
$2,263.2
$6,851.4
$2,373.7
$3,926.3
-$548.6
$2,127.0
$2,675.6

$15,470.7
$16,163.2
2.1%
$16,432.7
101.7%
$10,449.7
$1,235.7
$2,280.1
$6,942.4
$2,424.3
$3,883.7
-$537.6
$2,216.5
$2,754.1

$15,761.3
$16,768.1
1.5%
$17,352.0
103.5%
$10,699.7
$1,319.0
$2,322.6
$7,073.1
$2,634.7
$3,839.4
-$476.4
$2,280.2
$2,756.6

$16,085.6
$17,418.9
1.6%
$18,141.4
104.1%
$10,969.0
$1,410.0
$2,364.8
$7,218.6
$2,776.1
$3,938.9
-$505.0
$2,345.4
$2,850.5

$16,445.0
$18,112.0
1.5%
$18,950.2
104.6%
$11,287.0
$1,515.4
$2,400.3
$7,347.8
$2,932.9
$3,943.2
-$515.0
$2,365.0
$2,880.0

2.29%
4.08%
2.10%
6.39%
2.06%
2.29%
7.48%
1.50%
1.79%
5.65%
0.11%
-2.65%
3.42%
2.18%

t
t
l
m
m
t
l
l
l
l
t
m
l
m

3.25%
0.10%

3.25%
0.14%

3.25%
0.11%

3.25%
0.09%

3.25%
0.14%

0.00%
-3.33%

l
l

85.2
92.2
55.2

101.6
87.2
51.7

105.9
84.3
53.9

113.5
88.1
55.9

114.5
90.1
56.0

11.07%
-1.48%
0.42%

l
t
l

$4,133
$11,801.4
8.9%
64.8
609

$4,344
$12,384.0
8.1%
72.0
780

$4,528
$12,505.2
7.4%
78.1
925

$4,701
$12,985.8
6.2%
93.1
1003

$4,916
$13,419.0
5.5%
96.0
1009

4.58%
3.35%
-10.11%
14.56%
21.57%

l
l
m
t
m

201.2
316.2

202.2
326.1

203.4
317.7

205
299.9

204.2
298

0.63%
-1.72%

m
m

224.9
143.9

229.6
148.6

233.0
146.4

236.7
144.8

238.0
144.2

1.74%
0.21%

l
l

97.15
0.99
6.46
1.39
79.70
12.43

99.81
1.00
6.31
1.29
79.82
13.15

100.98
1.03
6.15
1.33
97.60
12.76

104.2
1.10
6.16
1.33
105.74
13.30

105.0
1.15
6.20
1.07
120.0
15.45

2.40%
3.70%
-1.55%
-1.44%
10.89%
2.33%

l
l
m
t
l
l

2011
Gross Domestic Product and Components
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Nominal
Inflation Rate
U.S. National Debt (Nominal)
U.S. National Debt as a Percent of GDP
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
Services
Gross Private Domestic Investment (as of 10/1/XX)
Government Expenditures (Billions of Current Dollars)
Trade Balance
Total Exports
Total Imports
Interest Rates (Change in points)1
Prime Rate
Federal Funds Rate
Manufacturing Indicators
Industrial Production Indexes (2002 = 100)1
Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing (average)
Tire Manufacturing (average)
Purchasing Managers Index (average)2
Consumer Information
Retail Sales (Billions of Current Dollars)3
Disposable Personal Income (Billions of Current Dollars)
Civilian Unemployment Rate (Change in points)4
Consumer Confidence Index (for December)5
Housing Starts (Thousands of Units)3
Prices4
Producer Price Indexes
Total Manufacturing (Dec. 1984 = 100)
Diesel Fuel (June 1985 = 100)
Consumer Price Indexes (1982-84 = 100)
All Items
Motor Vehicle Parts and Equipment
Exchange Rates (Units per U .S . Dollar)1
Broad Index (Jan. 1997 = 100)
Canada - Dollar
China - Yuan
European Union - Euro (U.S. Dollars per Currency Unit)
Japan - Yen
Mexico - Peso
Notes:

4

CAGR
(2011-2014) Assessment

Sources: Auto Care Association Industry Indicators Report, U.S. Department of Commerce
na = not available
1
Federal Reserve Board
Historical data have been revised.
2
Institute for Supply Management
l = Favorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket
3
U.S. Census Bureau
t = Indeterminate trend - should monitor
4
U.S. Department of Labor
m = Unfavorable condition for motor vehicle aftermarket
5
The Conference Board

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Digital Auto Care Factbook 2016

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