World Grain - November 2007 - 33

www .muehlencherrie.de
FEATURE: GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE REVIEW

fall to 10.3 million tonnes from 11.4 million a year ago. Just a
month earlier, the IGC put Australian wheat exports for 200708 at 14.5 million tonnes. The E.U.'s exports are also expected
to fall, dropping to 10.5 million tonnes, 1 million less than the
previous month's estimate and comparing with 12.9 million
in 2006-07.
However, some countries will likely fill part of the gap.
Russia will export 11.5 million tonnes this year, compared
with 10.9 a year ago and 500,000 tonnes more than the IGC
thought a month earlier, while Kazakhstan will export 8 million tonnes, an increase of 1 million tonnes on the earlier estimate, although still down on the previous year's 8.4 million.
China, not a traditional exporter, will also export more,
sending 3 million tonnes abroad in 2007-08, compared with
2.5 million the year before.
After a series of sharp rises around the world, prices had
fallen a bit as of mid-October. Speaking at the October conference, HGCA Chairman John Page pointed out that the U.K.
market has seen record prices this year, but that the day before
the meeting the British feed wheat futures market had been
down at one point by £19 ($38.50) a tonne, a record fall. "This
has been a very exciting year," he said.
"It is the inevitable follow-up after the increase," one analyst said. "Now the market is more certain about the outcome.
There's nothing like uncertainty to push prices higher."
The market is underpinned by the strength in biofuels, particularly in the U.S. "The response to ethanol demand has been
expansion," said Dickie. "The expansion
has been mainly in the U.S. It's going into
consumption that wasn't there five years
ago. At $3 to $3.50 a bushel, U.S. agriculture is capable of plowing up reserve and
fallow land and producing more."
He believed that the world's farmers can
produce enough to satisfy demand for grains
Dickie
for biofuels. "Arable agriculture in the history of mankind has never failed to provide what is required
of it by society," he said.
The strength of the response from farmers, particularly in
the U.S., is shown by the IGC's maize production figure, now
at 766 million tonnes for 2007-08, an increase of 11 million
tonnes, compared with the estimate it made a month earlier.
Last year's crop was 695 million tonnes. The extra production has been driven by U.S. farmers who have produced a
crop of 337 million tonnes, compared with 267.6 million a
year ago.
The production increase has occurred despite indications
that high prices and the reduced margins they have caused have
trimmed consumption by ethanol producers.
If the high price of grain was not enough for the world's
buyers to put up with, freight costs have also risen sharply,
driven by demand, particularly for shipping capacity for minerals in Asia. Increased demand for oilseeds, particularly from

Everything you need ,
from a single source.
Muhlenchem ie develops and markets

innovative flour improvers and premixes for
the efficient production of baked goods.
Based in Germany, we have been partners to
the worldwide milling industry for Bo years .
Flour Improvers
Oxidizing Agents
Dough Softeners
A cidity Regulators
Lecithin Powders

Enzyme Systems
Vitamin Premixes
Ascorbic Acid
Bromate
Bromate Replacers

Bakery Ingredients
Raisi ng Agents
Preservatives
Sou r Dough Powder

Bakery Premixes
Pasta ISteam Coughs
Frozen Dough

Calcium Propionate

Enzymes for Crackers
Emulsifiers

Services
Tailo r-made Dough
Improvers
Read y-mixed Flours
Ad vice on Applications
Product Development

Contra ct Manufacturing

� Flour Analysis

Training Courses
Dosing Equipment
Laboratory Equipment

nt
1913

muh lenchemie

ma kes goo d flours even better
For more information, see Page 90.
Muhlench emie GmbH & Co. KG
Kur t-Fischer-Strasse 55, 229 26 A h re n sbu rg I Germany
Tel-: * 09 (o) 41o f I z o ] o o t , Fax * 49(o) 41 02 1202 010

info@muehlenchemi ede , www. m ueh lenc hemie de

www.World-Grain.com / World Grain / November 2007

35
A member of the Stern-Wywiol Gruppe

http://www.muehlencherrie.de http://www.World-Grain.com

World Grain - November 2007

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - November 2007