Milling & Baking News - April 30, 2013 - 42

Weather Outlook 

Cold weather brings chain
reaction of weather anomalies
BY DREW LERNER

Persistent cold weather since late February in much of central North America has brought on a chain reaction of
weather anomalies that are threatening crop production in 2013.
Much of the central U.S. Midwest
has surplus to excessive soil moisture
with flooding under way in many areas. A great amount of snow on the
ground from the northern U.S. Plains
into Canada’s Prairies will begin to
melt aggressively into early May
resulting in flooding great enough
to further delay the onset of spring
fieldwork. In the meantime, multiple
freezes in U.S. hard red winter wheat
country have further reduced the size
of this year’s crop after drought had

its way with the region last autumn
and during the winter.
The final big anomaly in North America is the lack of rain in western and
southern Texas. Changing weather in
early May will bring warmer conditions
to North America, less rain to the U.S.
Midwest and a chance for periodic thunderstorms in the southern Plains. Flooding in Canada and the United States will
peak in early May giving way to better
crop conditions later in the month.
42 / April 30, 2013 Milling & Baking News

Flooding that accompanied the rain
that fell in the southeastern half of Iowa,
Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan
during the week ended April 23 seriously set back fieldwork with rain totals
for the week running from 2 inches to
more than 6 inches over a large region
of important corn production country.
The rain came with a short-term surge
of warm air in the eastern Midwest
while the northern and central Plains
and western Corn Belt were dominated
by unusually cold temperatures.
The cold and wet conditions maintained deep snow cover in the upper Midwest where the potential for
spring flooding is rising exponentially
for the first half of May when the snow
finally melts. The cold and wet conditions during the past week
were responsible for keeping corn planting on hold
leaving progress at just 4%
complete as of April 22,
which is tied for the worst
start to corn planting since
the infamous 1993 growing
season when flooding was
a widespread and serious
problem in the Midwest.
World Weather, Inc. does
not believe this is the start
of another 1993 season with
excessive rainfall and constant delays to fieldwork. Instead rainfall is expected to
remain frequent and mostly
well-timed for a while as
temperatures trend a little
warmer and the end result
will “eventually” be better
planting and crop development potential. The weather
in early May is going to seem
much like that of normal for
early April, which means
temperatures may bounce
around quite a bit and crop
development rates will be a
little sluggish at times during the spring and early summer.
Record flooding is not expected in
the upper U.S. Midwest or in the Red
River Basin of the north this season, but
a rather substantial amount of snow
will be melting all at once making the
first half of May a tough time for travel
and field working opportunities. Many
areas from the Red River Basin north
northwest into a large portion of Canada’s Prairies will be facing similar flood
threats, and this year’s wet and cool bias

is bound to leave crops at least two to
four weeks behind their usual development pace, and that may lead to a shortened growing season if autumn frost
and freezes come normally or even a
little earlier than usual.
Statistics from the past have suggested that corn planted in the U.S. Midwest
in late April and May usually suffer a
penalty of a few bushels per acre yield
in some corn production areas. Some
wheat, barley, corn, soybean and canola
production along with some flax and
chickpeas also may be negatively impacted in Canada and the north-central
United States because of the slow start
to the growing season and anticipated
wet and cooler biased crop areas.
Needless to say, rain is not needed
across the Midwest right now. The
other part of the past week’s weather
that was important was the constant
cold weather that was present in western and northern parts of the region.
The only warm conditions were in
the lower Ohio River Basin and areas
south into the Delta, Tennessee River
Basin and southeastern states, which
is why much of that region has a little
better soil moisture than the heart of
the Midwest. Some heavy rain was
noted from southeastern Mississippi
to southern Georgia and northern
Florida where the ground also became
too wet for a while last week.
The Midwest is in need of a break
from the wet and cold weather pattern
or more notable delays to fieldwork
will evolve in the last days of April
and early May.
This week’s rainfall and temperature
trend may not help the environment
for fieldwork very much. Just enough
rain will fall to keep some fields muddy and air temperatures will be cool
enough again that soil temperatures
will be a little low in many areas for the
best field working conditions.
World Weather, Inc. is encouraged
that some warming will occur in early
May and the rainfall pattern will ease
up somewhat to help induce a better net
drying environment. However, with that
said, the first week of May will be dominated by a slightly warmer temperature
regime in the Midwest while showers
and thunderstorms still will come and
go across the region in a relatively normal manner. Temperatures may have
to rise above average to keep evaporation rates high enough to firm the soil
between rain events, and that may be a
tough request for early May. Nevertheless, warming is expected in a large
part of the Midwest while rainfall continues periodically. The trend will be
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Milling & Baking News - April 30, 2013

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