Milling & Baking News - March 2, 2004 - 17

D A T A

Consumer Price Index for baked
foods, cereal up 2% from year ago
WASHINGTON - The Consumer Price
Index for Cereals and Bakery Products
in January before seasonal adjustment
was 203.9% of the 1982-84 average, up
2% from a year ago. The segment rose
0.5% from December, marking its second
consecutive month-to-month gain, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
of the U.S. Department of Labor.
The January index for all food at
home was 184, up 4% from January 2003
but down 0.1% from a month ago.
The C.P.I. for Cereals and Cereal
Products in January was 186.6, up 1.4%
from December and up 1.8% from January 2003. The index for products within
this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 180.8, up 5.2% from December and up 1.7% from the previous
year; breakfast cereals, 204.3, up 0.5%
from the previous month and up 0.7%
from a year ago; and rice, pasta and corn
meal, 163.4, up 1.4% from December and
up 3.7% from January 2003.
The price index for Bakery Products
in January was 212.6, unchanged from
December but up 2.1% from January
2003. Two product segments within this
category - bread and fresh biscuits,
rolls and muffins - use a December
1997 base; all others are based on a 1982-

84 average.
The January index for bread was
117.6, down 0.8% from December but
up 0.6% from January 2003. Under
this heading, the C.P.I. for white bread
was 215.8, down 1.4% from December
and down 0.2% from January 2003. For
bread other than white, the index was
222.6, up 0.1% from December and up
0.1% from a year ago.
The price index for fresh biscuits,
rolls and muffins in January was
119.5, down 0.3% from December
but up 2.7% from January 2003. The
January index for cakes, cupcakes and
cookies was 204.8, down 0.1% from
December but up 2.2% from January 2003. Under this segment, other
price indexes included fresh cakes
and cupcakes, 205.3, down 1.1% from
December but up 1.8% from January
2003; and cookies, 206.2, up 1.5% from
the previous month and up 2.8% from
the previous year.
The C.P.I. for other bakery products
in January was 208.7, up 1% from
December and up 3.1% from January
2003. Under this heading, other price
indexes in January included: fresh
sweet rolls, coffee cakes and donuts,
205.2, down 0.1% from December but

up 2.9% from January 2003; crackers
and cracker products, 243.3, up 0.4%
from December and up 3% from January
2003; and frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts and turnovers,
216.8, up 4.5% from December and up
3.7% from the previous year. MBN

Consumer Price Index for
Cereal and Bakery Products
(1982-84=100)
January December
2004
2003
All cereal and bakery products
U.S. average
All Bakery Products
Bread*
White bread
Bread other than white
Fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins*
Cakes, cupcakes and cookies
Fresh cakes and cupcakes
Cookies
Other bakery products
Fresh sweet rolls, coffee
cakes and donuts
Crackers and cracker products
Frozen and refrigerated
bakery products
All Cereals, Cereal Products
All-purpose flour, mixes
Breakfast cereals
Rice, pasta, corn meal

bakingbusiness.com/world-grain.com

202.9
212.6
118.6
218.9
222.5
119.9
205.1
207.7
203.1
206.5

205.2
243.3

205.5
242.4

216.8
186.6
180.8
204.3
163.4

207.0
183.9
171.4
203.2
161.1

*December 1997 base.

World wheat stocks continue
to tighten, F.A.S. data show
WASHINGTON - The Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Feb. 10 lowered by 1.33 million
tonnes its forecast for 2003-04 world wheat
ending stocks, to 125.95 million tonnes. The
decrease was attributed to a narrow reduction in estimated wheat production and a
slight increase in projected world wheat use.
If the revised forecast were to be realized,
world wheat stocks at the end of the current
year would be the smallest since 1981-82.
The global stocks-to-use ratio was projected
at 21.3%, the tightest since 1971-72. The
stocks-to-use ratio in 2002-03 was 27.5%.
At 125.95 million tonnes, ending stocks
this year would be down 39.62 million
tonnes, or 24%, from 165.57 million tonnes
estimated to be in world stores at the end
of 2002-03.
World wheat production in 2003-04 was
estimated at 551.77 million tonnes, down
890,000 tonnes from the January forecast
and down 29.8 million tonnes, or 5%, from
581.57 million tonnes in the previous year. If
the estimate were to hold, wheat production
this year would be the lowest since 1995-96.

203.9
212.6
117.6
215.8
222.6
119.5
204.8
205.3
206.2
208.7

The largest decrease in estimated wheat
production was registered for China. The
F.A.S. estimated 2003 Chinese wheat production at 86 million tonnes, down 1 million from the January estimate and down
4.29 million tonnes from the year before.
The decrease for China combined with narrower declines registered for the European
Union and the former Soviet Union offset
a 1-million-tonne increase for Argentina,
to 13.5 million tonnes, and more minor increases for Brazil and Eastern Europe.
World wheat use in 2003-04 was projected
at 591.4 million tonnes, up 560,000 tonnes
from the January forecast but down 10.38
million tonnes, or 2%, from a record 601.78
million tonnes in 2002-03. The decrease from
the previous year was attributed entirely to
a projected 10.74-million-tonne reduction in
feed use of wheat from 2002-03, to 102.16
million tonnes.
World wheat imports in 2003-04 were
projected at 98.77 million tonnes, up 1.15
million tonnes from the January forecast
but still the smallest volume in world trade
since 1995-96. World wheat imports in 2002-

03 had been 106.73 million tonnes. Minor
increases in import demand were projected
for North Africa and Eastern Europe. China
was projected to import 2 million tonnes in
the current year, unchanged from the January forecast but up from 430,000 tonnes in
2002-03 and 1.09 million tonnes in 2001-02.
World wheat exports in 2003-04 were projected at 103.62 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from 101.32 million as the January forecast but down 3.74 million tonnes
from an estimated 107.36 million tonnes
during the previous year. The F.A.S. noted
that its world wheat imports and exports
might not balance because of differences in
marketing years, grain in transit and reporting discrepancies in some countries.
U.S. exports in 2003-04 were projected at
31.3 million tonnes, up 680,000 tonnes from
the month before and up 8.05 million tonnes,
or 37%, from the 2002-03 outgo of 23.25 million tonnes, the latter a 30-year low.
Increases of 500,000 tonnes each were projected for exports from Argentina, to 8 million tonnes; Brazil, to 1 million tonnes; and
China, to 2.2 million tonnes. The increase
for China would indicate that that country
would remain a net wheat exporter this year.
The export projection for Kazakhstan was
lowered 500,000 tonnes, to 6 million. MBN
Milling & Baking News, March 2, 2004 / 17

http://www.bakingbusiness.com/world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - March 2, 2004

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