Milling & Baking News - May 17, 2005 - 43

I N G R E D I E N T

W E E K

 Wheat Futures

Further price declines were sustained
in wheat futures last week. By the week's
end, contracts were trading not much
above season's lows.
The week was not lacking in supportive features, particularly a decline in
winter wheat condition. But in the end,
these were not persuasive in the face of a
higher-than-expected forecast of winter
wheat production, a 2005-06 U.S. wheat
ending stocks forecast up 137 million
from those projected for the end of the
current year and rain across the Plains.
Winter wheat condition as of May 8
was pegged at 59% good to excellent,
compared with 63% a week earlier and
68% at the beginning of April. Dryness
across the hard winter belt was the principal reason for the overall decline. But rain
fell last week across most of Oklahoma,
central and eastern Kansas and southern
Nebraska. Some western areas of the belt
also received some precipitation, though
others again were missed. Additional
rain was in forecasts for the weekend.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's
initial forecast of winter wheat production
issued May 12 was 1,591 million bus, up
6%, from 1,499 million bus in 2004. The
forecast was above the average of pre-re-

port trade estimates at 1,556 million bus.
The hard red winter wheat outturn was
forecast at 1,006 million bus, up 18% from
2004 and compared with trade estimates
averaging 978 million bus. Soft red winter
wheat was projected at 302 million bus,
down 21% from 2004. White winter wheat
was projected at 282,503,000 bus, up 7%.
World wheat production in 2005-06
was forecast at 615.21 million tonnes,
down from a record 624.9 million tonnes
in 2004-05. Ending stocks for 2005-06
were forecast at 147.44 million tonnes,
down only slightly from 149.55 million
tonnes projected for 2004-05.
The Department's initial forecast of the
2006 U.S. wheat carryover was 678 million
bus, up 137 million bus from the projection
for June 1, 2005. Wheat exports in 2005-06
were forecast at 950 million bus, down 100
million from the current year projection. The
average farm price of wheat in 2005-06 was
forecast to range from $2.55@3.05 a bu, compared with an estimated $3.39 in 2004-05. MBN

 Millfeed

An increasingly chaotic market
generated irregular price fluctuations
in principal regions last week. While
Southwest numbers appeared to rally at
least modestly from recent lows, Central

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
May
July
September
December
Chicago
May
July
September
December
Minneapolis
May
July
September
December

Season's
Low

- Change from -
May 6 April 29

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

3.30
3.09½
3.16½
3.26½

+1½c
-10½c
-8½c
-9½c

-11c
-22¼c
-23c
-22½c

3.52½
3.24½
3.30
3.40½

3.25
3.08½
3.15½
3.26¼

3.80
3.79¾
3.85
3.92½

4.28
3.82
4.00
4.44

(04-07-04)
(07-12-04)
(06-03-04)
(05-05-04)

3.13
3.04½
3.12
3.21

(04-18-05)
(01-28-05)
(01-28-05)
(01-27-05)

2.96½
3.02¾
3.11¾
3.22

-13c
-14¼c
-14¼c
-13¼c

-21½c
-23¼c
-22¾c
-21¾c

3.13
3.23
3.32
3.42½

2.96½
3.02½
3.11½
3.21¾

3.54
3.58½
3.65¼
3.75½

4.30
4.00
3.80
4.40

(04-08-04)
(05-04-04)
(03-15-05)
(04-05-04)

2.95
3.02¼
3.08
2.82½

(01-31-05)
(02-04-05)
(05-04-05)
(12-02-04)

3.23
3.21
3.28¼
3.39

-1c
-12¼c
-11c
-10¾c

-13c
-24c
-23c
-22c

3.27
3.35
3.41¾
3.52

3.23
3.20¾
3.28
3.38½

4.12
4.01¼
4.02½
4.06¼

4.34
4.19
4.05
4.57

(06-01-04)
(05-05-04)
(06-24-04)
(04-05-04)

3.10½
3.18
3.25
3.25

(04-15-05)
(04-15-05)
(02-09-05)
(12-01-04)

July-Sep.
45 @ 47
47 @ 40
45 @ 48
41 @ 44
58 @ 61
30 @ 34
26 @ 31
37 @ 42
73 @ 77
69 @ 73
65 @ 70

Oct-Dec
63 @ 65
66 @ 68
53 @ 58
49 @ 54
66 @ 71
48 @ 53
42 @ 48
48 @ 53
76 @ 80
72 @ 76
70 @ 75

May 13

states values plunged close to the $20-aton mark. Eastern and Upper Midwest
markets sagged somewhat. California
finally moved down from its peak.
Adding to overall pressure, flour mill
grind picked up slightly at a few points.
Throughout the nation, mills and merchandisers struggled to move spot production in a timely fashion. Central states mills
sought outlets in all directions. Jobbers
were said to be barging sizable volume
of midds down the rivers, possibly to the
Mississippi Delta catfish market or to other
destinations. There were other reports of
millfeed moving into storage, pelleting
and the like. The trade was investigating
Mexican and West coast options as well.
Because some of these options involving
large quantities might or might not be realized, the outlook remained clouded. Deal
makers also complained that sizable deferred carrying charges inhibited business.
Wheat germ declined $20 a ton, with
supplies surfacing that could not be
moved except at sharp discounts.
Bulk middlings at $38 a ton in K.C. and
$31 in Minneapolis compared with corn
at $67 and sorghum at $66 a ton, both at
K.C. Corn gluten feed was off $6, at $55
a ton. Distillers' dried grains held at $75
and dehydrated alfalfa at $136 a ton. MBN

Chicago wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
38 @ 42
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
41 @ 44
Minneapolis
31 @ 35
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 27 @ 31
Chicago West
44 @ 48
Central states, f.o.b truck 23 @ 25
Buffalo
24 @ 28
Southeast
25 @ 30
N. & S. California
82 @ 86
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck
78 @ 82
Pacific Northwest
65 @ 70
Upper Midwest, sacked
140
Wheat germ
205 @ 215

May
38 @ 42
41 @ 44
31 @ 35
27 @ 31
44 @ 48
24 @ 29
24 @ 29
25 @ 30
82 @ 86
78 @ 82
65 @ 70

42 / Milling & Baking News, May 17, 2005

- Change from - Year
May 6
April 29
ago
0 @ +1
0 @ +1 69 @ 73
+2 @ +2 +2 @ +2 ... @ ...
-1 @ -1
-1 @ -1 75 @ 82
-1 @ -1
-1 @ -1 71 @ 78
-1 @ -1
-1 @ -1 88 @ 95
-4 @ -4
-4 @ -4 75 @ 80
-4 @ -1
-4 @ -1 74 @ 78
0 @ -4
0 @ -4 75 @ 79
-3 @ -4
-3 @ -4 113 @ 118
-3 @ -4
-3 @ -4 109 @ 114
0@0
0 @ 0 78 @ 85

June
41 @ 44
44 @ 47
31 @ 36
27 @ 32
44 @ 49
28 @ 32
25 @ 30
33 @ 38
80 @ 84
76 @ 80
65 @ 70

Minneapolis wheat futures
July contract, $ per bu

bakingbusiness.com/world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com/world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - May 17, 2005

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - May 17, 2005
