Milling & Baking News - May 9, 2006 - 40

I N G R E D I E N T

 Cash Wheat

HARD WINTER. Premiums on hard
red winter and dark hard wheat in Kansas City last week were unchanged to
4c a bu lower. One-cent declines were
the rule from 12% protein through 13.8%
protein, with the 4c drop applying to
wheat with 14% protein. As has been the
case for months, rail cars from less preferred origins or with restrictive rail billing were bid at wide discounts to high
sides of premium ranges.
Mills bought some wheat for June-August, though activity in the market for
to-arrive wheat still was not heavy.
Exporter demand for hard winter
wheat was limited.
Participants in the Wheat Quality
Council's Kansas wheat tour, on the basis of 435 stops across the state, projected
average wheat yield in Kansas at 37.3 bus
per acre, compared with a tour estimate
of 46.2 bus per acre last year and the
actual 2005 average yield of 40 bus per
acre. More than 40 tour members offered
Kansas production estimates, which averaged 319 million bus, compared with
an average tour estimate of 420 million
bus last year and actual 2005 production
of 380 million bus. The recent five-year
average Kansas outturn was 355 million
bus. The tour overview was that dryness
had significantly reduced yield potential
in the state, and views were mixed as to
how much benefit recent rains would
bring. Tour members noted the crop was
maturing "unbelievably early."
Oklahoma crop scouts projected average wheat yield in that state at 21.5
bus per acre on a forecast 3,235,000 harvested acres. Oklahoma production was
estimated at 69.8 million bus, down from
128 million bus in 2005. It would be the
smallest Oklahoma crop since 1957.
A wetter weather pattern was estab-

No. 1 hard winter
Basis Kansas City July, cents per bu
May 5 - Change from -
Premium Apr. 28 Apr. 21
Ordinary 24 @ 39
-
-
11%
28 @ 43
-
-
11.2%
28 @ 43
-
-
11.4%
33 @ 48
-
-
11.6%
35 @ 50
-
-
11.8%
41 @ 56
-
-
12%
43 @ 58 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
12.2%
44 @ 59 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
12.4%
44 @ 59 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
12.6%
44 @ 59 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
12.8%
46 @ 61 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
13%
46 @ 61 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
13.2%
48 @ 63 -1 @ -1
-
13.4%
48 @ 63 -1 @ -1
-
13.6%
48 @ 63 -1 @ -1
-
13.8%
50 @ 65 -1 @ -1 -1 @ -1
14%
50 @ 65 -4 @ -4 -4 @ -4

bakingbusiness.com/world-grain.com

Year
ago
40 @ 60
47 @ 67
52 @ 72
57 @ 77
57 @ 77
57 @ 77
60 @ 80
60 @ 80
60 @ 80
60 @ 80
60 @ 80
62 @ 82
62 @ 82
63 @ 83
65 @ 85
66 @ 86
71 @ 91

lishing itself across the hard winter belt.
Even western areas of Kansas received
some moisture, though less than central
and eastern portions of the state.
Wheat condition ratings declined
across the Southwest in the week ended
April 30. Rated good to excellent was
26% of wheat in Kansas (37% poor to
very poor), 4% in Oklahoma (76% poor
to very poor), 3% in Texas (80%), 50% in
Nebraska (16%) and 37% in Colorado
(29%). Forty-eight per cent of the wheat
in Kansas was heading as of April 30
(13% as average for the date), 89% in
Oklahoma (70%), 54% in Texas (53%)
and 3% in Colorado (3%).
HARD SPRING. Premiums on hard red
spring wheat at Minneapolis were 5c a
bu higher to 10c lower last week. The
July became the basic future at a 5c premium to the May.
Mill demand remained limited, with
many pipelines filled to capacity. Export demand remained light. Indications
were a train traded to a Duluth export elevator, but exporters weren't otherwise
active in the spot rail market.
Farmer selling remained limited, with
producers concentrating on planting.
Spring wheat planting in the six principal states was 42% completed on April
30, compared with 43% as the recent
five-year average for the date. Seeding
was 32% completed in North Dakota
(32% as average), 83% in South Dakota
(75%), 44% in Minnesota (35%), 35% in

Montana (44%), 53% in Idaho (74%) and
71% in Washington (91%). Wheat emergence was at 5% in North Dakota, 41%
in South Dakota, 7% in Minnesota, 1%
in Montana, 17% in Idaho and 47% in
Washington.
SOFT RED. Mill bids on soft red winter
wheat were steady to weaker. Mill stocks
seemed adequate, and confidence in new
crop prospects was high.
In Kansas City, No. 1 soft red bids
declined 2c, to 27@7c under K.C. July.
Spot Gulf bids advanced 4c, to 24c over
Chicago July. St. Louis mill bids were 5c
over Chicago July. The Chicago mill basis was steady at 25c over Chicago May.
Mill bids in Toledo were at 46c under
Chicago July; new crop, 38c under July.
Elevator bids were 40c under May; new
crop, 50c under July. Cincinnati nearby
mill bids were 35c under Chicago July;
new crop, 35c under July. Elevator bids
for nearby were 16c under May; new
crop, 42c under July. Michigan white
wheat mill bids on 1 p.p.m. vomitoxin
were 45c over Chicago July, with offers
much higher. Soft white wheat growers have been heavy sellers of new crop
wheat and even have pre-sold a portion
of their prospective production for both
2007 and 2008.
The condition of wheat in the Central states remained outstanding. Rated
good to excellent was 55% of wheat in
Missouri, 81% in Illinois, 80% in Indiana,
81% in Ohio and 81% in Michigan. MBN

No. 1 hard spring

Cash wheat

Milling quality, basis Minneapolis July, cents per bu
May 5
- Change from -
Year
Premium Apr. 28
Apr. 21
ago
Ordinary
...
...
...
...
11%
...
...
...
...
12%
...
...
...
...
13%
...
...
...
50 @ 55
13.5%
60
+5 @ -5
...
82 @ 98
14%
60 @ 75
-
+5 @ 0 110 @ 115
14.5%
...
...
...
160
15%
80 @ 125 -10 @ +5
-5 @ +5 210 @ 240
16%
...
...
...
...
17%
...
...
...
...

Exporter bids and offers
For
May 5
shipment
Bid
Offer
No. 1 Hard 11%, Track Gulf
Basis Kansas City future, cents per bu
May
...
June
+65 July
75
July
+68 July
...
August
+70 Sep.
...
No. 2 Soft Red, c.i.f. New Orleans
Basis Chicago future, cents per bu
May
+24 July
27
June
+14 July
18
July
+14 July
18
August
+7 Sep.
14

W E E K

Year ago
bid

+65
+58
+56
+50

July
July
July
Sep.

+48
+40
+38
+35

July
July
July
Sep.

May 5 - Change from -
For shipment
Bid
Apr. 28 Apr. 21
No. 1 Soft White, Track, Portland
$ per bu
Nearby
3.77
+.12
+.09
May
3.77
+.12
+.08
June
3.77
+.12
+.07
No. 1 Hard 11.5%, Track, Portland
Basis Kansas City future, $ per bu
Nearby
0.57
+.02
-
May
0.57
+.02
+.02
June
0.50
-
-.03
No. 1 Spring 14%, Track, Portland
Basis Minneapolis future, $ per bu
Nearby
1.28
+.03
-
May
1.28
+.03
-.02
June
1.25
-
-.05

Year
ago

3.95
3.95
3.95
0.85
0.95
0.80

1.62
1.62
1.60

Canadian domestic milling wheat
In-store, Thunder Bay,
Canadian $ per tonne
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum
U.S. $ per bu
Western red spring 13.5%
Soft white spring
Amber durum

May 5
208.91
166.39
203.41
5.14
4.09
5.00

Apr. 28
+2.99
-1.56
-2.41
0.14
0.01
-

Year
ago
209.33
203.73
230.68
4.58
4.46
5.05

Milling & Baking News, May 9, 2006 / 41
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