Milling & Baking News - May 22, 2007 - 68

Data

With revision, 2006 flour output
up to just under 400 million cwts
Continued from Page 1

decrease of 2,290,000, or 0.6%, in 2004,
which followed an increase of 1,515,000
in 2003. Sharp output decreases were
posted in 2002 and 2001. Those two
straight years of output reductions
were themselves unusual, contrasting with the previous period when
production rose consistently year after
year. The decreases in 2002 and 2001
were among the sharpest decreases
in more than 50 years. Output in 2004
was the smallest since 1995, when mills
produced 388,689,000 cwts. Prior to
2002, output had exceeded 400 million
cwts on four occasions initially reaching that level in 1997. Three successive
years - 1999 through 2001 - also exceeded 400 million cwts.
Daily capacity in the Flour Milling
Products Summary for 2006 shows increases over the preliminary numbers

flour production up 2.5 million cwts,
or 0.6%, from the preliminary total of
397,360,000, the latter computed from
quarterly flour reports. The 2005 summary revealed output up 1,034,000
cwts, or 0.3%, from the preliminary total of 393,939,000. The 2004 final summary presented a gain of 4,060,000, or
1%, while the 2003 final showed output down 3,099,000, or 0.8%, from the
preliminary. The 2002 summary output included a reduction of 6,018,000
cwts, or 1.5%.
Data for 2006 showed changes to the
final output in all states but Michigan.
The largest output revision in the
2006 summary occurred in Iowa,
which was raised 2,227,000 cwts
from the preliminary. Illinois was up
755,000; North Carolina, 513,000; Kansas, 382,000; North Dakota, 323,000;
New York state, 299,000; Oregon and

U.S. flour production

399.9

395.0

393.9

396.2

394.7

421.3

404.5

412.0

404.1

398.9

397.8

392.5

388.7

370.8

362.3

354.3

344.2

342.8

341.6

326.3

313.8

299.8

311.6

290.9

282.7

284.0

For extensive further information on 2006 flour
production plus first quarter 2007 flour data,
go to www.bakingbusiness.com and click Market Reports.

387.4

(1,000 cwts)

'80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce

and also from the preceding year. The
fourth-quarter benchmark capacity
number was 1,506,016 cwts, up 13,560
from a year earlier. The national average
mill operating rate in 2006 was 87.1% of
six-day capacity, down from the preliminary 87.4% but a slight gain from 86.2%
in 2005 and 86% in 2004. The recent
year's high was 89.6% in 2000.
Wheat grind in 2006 was up 0.5%
from 2005 and millfeed production increased only 0.1%, compared with the
flour gain of 1.2%.
The North American Millers' Association provides funding to the Census
Bureau in support of the compilation
of these flour milling statistics.
Production revised upward
The 2006 summary shows U.S.
70 / May 22, 2007

Milling & Baking News

Washington combined, 128,000; and
Minnesota, 29,000. Missouri, also
showing decreases in recent years in
the revision, was down 1,101,000, followed by Pennsylvania, 919,000; Ohio,
164,000; Texas, 96,000; California and
Hawaii, 20,000 and Utah, 17,000.
The "all other" states category,
where flour production data for selected states are not disclosed, showed an
output increase of 161,000 cwts from
the preliminary number.
With revised final numbers, 2006
flour production registered an increase of 4,887,000 from 2005, while
the latter was up 1,048,000 from 2004.
In turn, that year was down 2,290,000
cwts from 2003, which followed a gain
in 2003 of 1,515,000 cwts from 2002.
All of these changes were still over-

shadowed by decreases of 9,821,000 in
2002 and 16,749,000 in 2001. The 2001
decrease was the largest reduction
since 1949, when production plunged
a record 44,782,000 cwts in the wake of
the termination of post-World War II
export relief flour shipments.
The largest annual increase of record occurred in 1945 when production jumped 31 million cwts, followed
by a drop in 1947 of 26,599,000 cwts.
Since the start of compilations, flour
output has increased in 52 years and
decreased in 28. On average, flour production has shown an annual increase
of 2,365,116 cwts.
Production in 2006, at 399,860,000
cwts, was the fifth largest. The record
production was in 2000, at 421,270,000,
followed by 1999 at 411,968,000, 2001
at 404,521,000 and 1997 at 404,143,000.
Flour-ex-semolina in strong gain
In sharp contrast with the prior year
and providing important encouragement about the state of the overall flour
milling industry, 2006 data on wheat
flour production minus semolina
(flour-ex-semolina), recorded an appreciable increase. It more than offset
a discouraging decrease in 2005. The
latter reduction, which occurred in a
year when overall output was up, also
followed flour-ex-semolina gains in the
two preceding years. At the same time,
the flour-ex-semolina increase did lag
behind that of the overall flour total,
reflecting a larger semolina gain.
Flour-ex-semolina production in
2006 totaled 367,912,000 cwts, up
3,777,000, or 1%, from the preceding year. It was the largest total in
five years, or since 2001, when it
was 371,591,000. The 2005 total was
364,135,000, down 2,831,000, or 0.8%,
from 2004. The 2004 aggregate, in turn,
was 366,966,000 cwts, up 442,000, or
0.1%, from the preceding year and
output in 2003, at 366,524,000, was up
4,235,000, or 1.2%, from a year earlier.
Flour-ex-semolina production in 2002,
at 362,289,000, was down 9,302,000, or
2.5%, from the preceding year and 2001,
at 371,591,000, was down 17,930,000,
or 4.6%, from 2000 when output was a
record 389,521,000. In turn, 2006 flourex-semolina was down 21,609,000, or
5.5%, from the high.
Flour-ex-semolina in 1999 totaled 385,882,000, the second largest. Data for that and earlier years
are not strictly comparable because
of a definition change for semolina
beginning in 2000. The third largest
year was 1997 at 374,667,000, followed by 1998 at 371,858,000, 2001
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Milling & Baking News - May 22, 2007

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