Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2009 - 44

Ingredient Week 

 Wheat Futures

Futures prices plunged through Oct.
28, with Minneapolis, Kansas City and
Chicago shedding all of their prior
week's gains and then some. Wheat
prices recovered briefly Oct. 29, following other markets higher after the government reported third-quarter gross
domestic product rose a surprising 3.5%.
Futures turned lower again Oct. 30.
Wheat futures sustained losses of
about 50c a bu, or 9% to 10%, at all three
exchanges for the week as fundamentals
of excess supply and weak demand continued to overhang the market.
The International Grains Council last
week forecast world wheat production in
2009-10 at 667 million tonnes, up 1 million
tonnes from its September projection, while
leaving consumption unchanged at 643
million tonnes, and raising world wheat
ending stocks by 3 million tonnes, to 188
million tonnes, the most since 2001-02.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture
said net sales of U.S. export wheat for
2009-10 during the week ended Oct. 22
totaled 347,700 tonnes, down 45% from
the previous week and 42% below the
prior four-week average. Sales were below trade expectations and marketing
year-to-date sales were about 30% below
the year-ago pace. There was a spark of

foreign interest with Iraq buying 100,000
tonnes of U.S. wheat last week, but it
also bought from Russia and Australia.
Meanwhile, a meteorologist addressing the Kansas City Board of Trade forecast a mostly dry and warm period this
week, which should allow farmers to
make rapid progress in harvesting fall
row crops and planting winter wheat.
A surge in harvesting was expected to
pressure corn prices, which would likely
pull wheat lower as well.
Winter wheat was 76% planted as of
Oct. 25 compared with 85% as the average for the date, and emergence was
at 59% versus 66% as the average, the
U.S.D.A. said. In its first aggregate condition report of the fall, the U.S.D.A. rated
winter wheat as of Oct. 25 at 62% good
to excellent and 33% fair compared with
65% and 30%, respectively, a year ago. MBN

 Millfeed

Millfeed price changes were erratic last
week. In particular, Southwest prices,
which were under substantial selling
pressure through midweek, rallied in the
latter half of the week. Other markets, initially relatively stable, also participated in
the late advances. Upper Midwest prices,
among the leaders in the week's gains,
still noticeably lagged Southwest truck

Wheat futures

Kansas City wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

$ per bu; change in cents per bu

Kansas City
December
March
May
July
Chicago
December
March
May
July
Minneapolis
December
March
May
July

Season's
Low

- Change from -
Oct. 23 Oct. 16

Week's
High
Low

Year
ago

High

4.99
5.15
5.26¾
5.37¾

-50½c
-51c
-50¼c
-50½c

-11½c
-10¾c
-10¼c
-10¾c

5.58½
5.68
5.66
5.98

4.97
5.13
5.25
5.36

5.73
5.90½
6.02½
6.10½

11.35
10.08½
7.71¾
11.20

(03-12-08)
(08-21-08)
(06-01-09)
(03-12-08)

4.58¾
4.75¼
4.86¾
4.98¼

(10-02-09)
(10-05-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)

4.94¼
5.14
5.27
5.37¼

-53½c
-52¾c
-52c
-52c

-4½c
-3¾c
-3c
-3c

5.58
5.77
5.57¾
5.98

4.89
5.10
5.25
5.35

5.36¼
5.56¾
5.70½
5.84

11.40
10.57
7.47¼
11.13½

(03-12-08)
(03-18-08)
(06-01-09)
(03-12-08)

4.39½
4.60
4.73½
4.85½

(09-30-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)
(10-02-09)

5.12¾
5.28
5.41¼
5.51¾

-48c
-50c
-50c
-51¾c

-13¾c
-14¾c
-12¼c
-12½c

5.71
5.86
5.99½
6.12

5.10½
5.25¾
5.40
5.51¼

6.47½
6.34½
6.32¼
6.38

11.70
9.65
9.65
9.65

(03-12-08)
(08-14-08)
(08-13-08)
(08-13-08)

4.77
4.93
5.04¾
5.13½

(09-30-09)
(09-30-09)
(09-30-09)
(10-02-09)

Oct. 30

levels. California and Pacific Northwest
values moved significantly higher.
Millfeed overall again was subject to the
influence of volatile feedstuffs markets,
with corn futures, for example, wiping
out the previous week's 25c-a-bu gains
by Oct. 28 before closing higher on Oct. 29
and lower again on Oct. 30. Also playing
an increasing role in day-to-day price fluctuations in individual markets was growing recognition of chronic and widespread
tight millfeed supplies. While much of this
merely reflected slower-than-expected
mill grind, participants noted millfeed
output also was falling below projections
based on actual wheat grind. U.S. Census
data issued almost three months back had
revealed that flour extraction was already
perhaps the highest on record.
While end users continued to avoid
forward coverage at current price levels,
demand often exceeded expectations, reflecting recent cold weather.
Wheat germ advanced $5 a ton, also reflecting relatively tight supplies.
Bulk middlings were $107 a ton in K.C.
and $105 in Minneapolis compared with
corn at $123 a ton and sorghum at $102,
both K.C. Corn gluten feed was up $5 at
$130 a ton, distillers' dried grain also was
strong at $135 a ton, and dehydrated alfalfa was steady at $205 a ton, all K.C. MBN

Chicago wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

Bulk middlings
$ per ton, delivered rail unless noted
Spot
Kansas City
107 @ 112
Southwest, f.o.b. truck
118 @ 122
Minneapolis
109 @ 114
Upper Midwest, f.o.b. truck 105 @ 110
Chicago West
122 @ 127
Central states, f.o.b truck 100 @ 105
Buffalo
95 @ 105
Southeast
81 @ 88
N. & S. California
124 @ 139
Los Angeles, f.o.b. truck 120 @ 135
Pacific Northwest
125 @ 135
Upper Midwest, sacked
225
Wheat germ
235 @ 245

- Change from - Year
Nov.
Oct. 23
Oct. 16
ago
107@ 112
-3 @ -3 +17 @ +18 123 @ 127
118@ 122
-4 @ -5 +18 @ +17 123 @ 127
109@ 114 +7 @ +7 +21 @ +23 99 @ 109
105@ 110 +7 @ +7 +21 @ +23 95 @ 105
122@ 127 +7 @ +7 +21 @ +23 112 @ 122
100@ 105 +7 @ +7 +10 @ +10 104 @ 114
95 @ 105 +3 @ 0
-5 @ 0
90 @ 100
81 @ 88
-1 @ +1 +11 @ +13 97 @ 103
124@ 139 +10 @ +10 +10 @ +15 154 @ 169
120@ 135 +10 @ +10 +10 @ +15 150 @ 165
125@ 135 +10 @ +10 +15 @ +18 160 @ 170

44 / November 3, 2009 Milling & Baking News

Dec.
114@ 118
124@ 128
109@ 116
105@ 112
122@ 129
102@ 108
95@ 105
87@ 93
124@ 139
120@ 135
125@ 135

Jan.-Mar. Apr.-June
100 @ 105 73 @ 78
115 @ 120 90 @ 95
96 @ 101 81 @ 86
92 @ 97
77 @ 82
109 @ 114 94 @ 99
91 @ 96
72 @ 77
85 @ 95
85 @ 95
78 @ 83
72 @ 77
119 @ 134 ... @ ...
115 @ 130 ... @ ...
125 @ 135 ... @ ...

Minneapolis wheat futures
December contract, $ per bu

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Milling & Baking News - November 3, 2009

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