Milling & Baking News - December 11, 2012 - 36

Weather Outlook 

Drought conditions continue, raising risk of winter wheat heaving
Continued from Page 1

through the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency at a startling pace the past few weeks. Producers are scrambling to get claims registered before the end of the year and the estimated dollar cost for this year’s U.S. drought has begun to skyrocket with some estimates

to be a period of recovery. In the meantime, the similarities to the 1930s drought will continue to mount and the latest concern is that of heaving soil in hard red winter wheat country. A ‘sleeping dog’ threat Concern will rise in the next few

occur over a prolonged period of time to induce a serious problem to winter wheat and to induce bouts of blowing dust, but we seem to be moving in that direction and these are issues we will hear more about in coming weeks. Wide temperature swings in recent weeks well above average and then below average and back above average again is a pattern that will exacerbate the heaving situation. Crops with poor root systems will be first to feel the impact of heaving. The 1930s dust storms not only eroded topsoil from around plants, but the dryness was so severe and heaving so great that the strong winds eventually blew wheat plants right out of the soil. Conditions as severe as that may not occur this winter, but blowing dust is likely later in the season and soil erosion likely will occur, although not to nearly the degree of that in the 1930s. Farmers are far better educated about soil management today and the errors of the 1930s will not be repeated. U.S. Midwest river ﬂow As for the river and stream flows across the western Midwest and Great Plains, weather patterns will not change enough in December to offer any improvement in runoff or water levels across most river systems in the Plains. Some strong falls are likely in river levels along the lower Missouri this month as the river responds to the greater damming exercises that are occurring in the upper Missouri Basin by the Corp of Engineers. Restricted river flow on the Missouri will maintain poor river levels on the Mississippi river between St. Louis and Cairo, Ill. Weather patterns in December will change in one particular manner. The jet stream will move southward. Once the jet stream moves to the south two

as high as $77 billion. That will rival the 1988 drought, but it will fall well short of the Hurricane Katrina disaster of 2005 when $146 billion of damage was recorded. It is most interesting to note that with Hurricane Sandy and nine other billion dollar weather disasters this year the total damage from adverse weather since Jan. 1 is now estimated at $147.8 billion. Many fear that the drought disaster is not over with no sign of relief in the Plains or portions of the western Corn Belt where the month of December likely will generate less than usual precipitation. Parallels with the 1934 drought are still prevailing and a quick look at the winter of 1934-35 reveals no significant relief to drought in the Plains states. The farther east one travels while comparing the 1934 and 2012 droughts the better soil conditions began and that was especially true in the spring season. All eyes will be focused on the March through May period for what is hoped
36 / December 11, 2012 Milling & Baking News

weeks over heaving conditions in the Plains, especially since so much of the winter wheat from non-irrigated fields in Kansas and Colorado northward to the Canadian border was not well established. The frequent freeze/ thaw cycle will loosen the soil and breakdown the topsoil to a fine dust in some locations. Heaving will have to

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Milling & Baking News - December 11, 2012

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