Milling & Baking News - February 27, 2007 - 52

W A S H I N G T O N

U.S.D.A. forecasts mostly stable
wheat outlook through 2016

in million acres

Seed use of wheat was expected to be
flat, averaging 80 million bus during the
baseline period.
U.S. wheat exports in 2007-08 were
Continued from Page 1
lion bus from the baseline's projection projected at 950 million bus, compared
production was expected to post new for the current year at 1,145 million bus. with 925 million bus as the baseline prorecord highs each year through 2016. In The increase was based on a projected jection for the current year (a more recent
contrast, soybean planted area was pro- 90-million-bu increase in wheat feeding U.S.D.A. forecast was for exports of 875
jected to decline to less than 69 million and a 10-million-bu increase in food use million bus in 2006-07). Exports were exacres during the baseline period from the of wheat in the upcoming crop year com- pected to be flat at 950 million bus through
record 75.6 million in 2006, as corn draws pared with 2006-07. Domestic wheat use 2009-10, then increase 25 million bus each
acres away from soybeans. And soybean was projected to peak at 1,325 million remaining year in the baseline period,
production during the period will not bus in 2010-11, then decrease steadily to reaching 1,125 million bus in 2016-17.
challenge the record outturn of 2006.
1,240 million bus in 2016-17.
"U.S. wheat exports are steady over the
"Wheat plantings rebound to 60 milFood use of wheat was projected at next several years, but increase after 2009lion acres in 2007 in response to high 930 million bus in 2007-08, up 10 mil- 10 as income and population in developprices, but then fall back to 58 million to lion bus from the forecast for the current ing countries grow, raising global wheat
59 million acres due to competition from year. The U.S.D.A. projected food use of consumption and trade," the U.S.D.A. said.
other crops," said the U.S.D.A. in com- wheat to increase 5 million bus each year "Competition continues from the European
mentary
accompanying
Union, Canada, Argentina, Austhe wheat baseline data.
tralia and the Black Sea region.
In comparison, the recent
The U.S. market share initially
Planted area, corn, soybeans, wheat
five-year (2002-2006) averdeclines but then holds relativeage area planted to wheat
ly constant near 22% once U.S.
100
was 59.3 million acres, and
exports resume their growth.
Corn
the recent 10-year average
Market shares for Australia, Ar(1997-2006) planted area
gentina and the Black Sea region
80
was 61.8 million acres.
increase, while shares for Canada
Soybeans
The largest area planted
and the E.U. decline."
to wheat was 88.3 million
Wheat ending stocks were
acres in 1981. Planted arprojected at 493 million bus in
60
eas in 2005 and 2006, at
2007-08, compared with a baseWheat
57.2 million acres and 57.3
line forecast of 418 million bus
million acres, respectively,
for the current year. Ending
40
were the smallest since 54.9
stocks were forecast to peak at
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
million acres in 1972.
517 million bus in 2008-09 and
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture
Harvested wheat area
2009-10, decline steadily to
in 2007 was projected at 51
422 million bus in 2014-15 and
million acres, up from 46.8 million acres of the baseline period, reaching 975 mil- 2015-16 and finish the baseline period at
in 2006. Harvested area was projected at lion bus in 2016-17.
427 million bus in 2016-17.
50.6 million acres in 2008 and 50.2 mil"Domestic demand for wheat reflects
"Wheat stocks rebound from 2006-07
lion acres in 2009. Beginning in 2010 and a relatively mature market," the U.S.D.A. levels as higher prices encourage additionextending through the end of the base- said. "Food use of wheat is projected to al acreage and production," the U.S.D.A.
line period, harvested wheat area was show moderate gains. Growth is some- said. "As wheat exports strengthen in
projected to hold at 49.7 million acres.
what slower than population increases, subsequent years, stocks decline."
Average yield per harvested acre was reflecting adjustments by some consumThe stocks-to-use ratio for 2007-08
projected at 42.5 bus per acre in 2007, ers to reduce carbohydrates in diets."
was projected at 22.5%, compared with
compared with 38.7 bus per acre in 2006
Feed and residual use of wheat in 2007- baseline forecast of 20.2% for the current
and 42 bus per acre in 2005. A narrow in- 08 was projected at 235 million bus com- year. The stocks-to-use ratio was forecast
crease in average yield was forecast for pared with 145 million bus forecast for the to peak at 23% in 2008-09, then decline to
each year in the baseline period, reach- current year. Feed and residual use during 18% to 18.1% in the last three years of the
ing 45.2 bus per acre in 2016.
the baseline period was expected to peak baseline period.
Wheat production in 2007 was project- at 300 million bus in 2009-10 and 2010-11,
The average farm price of wheat in 2007ed at 2,170 million bus, compared with and steadily decrease to 185 million bus in 08 was projected at $4.45 a bu, compared
1,812 million bus in 2006 and 2,105 mil- 2016-17. Wheat feeding at 300 million bus with a forecast $4.35 a bu in the current
lion bus in 2005. If the projection is real- would be the highest since 300.4 million year and $3.42 in 2005-06. Wheat prices
ized, wheat production this year would bus in 2000-01. Wheat feeding reached 391 were projected to range from $4.25 a bu (in
be the largest since 2,345 million bus in million tonnes in 1998-99 and was highest 2008-09 and 2009-10) to $4.55 a bu (in the
2003. The most recent five-year average in 1990-91 at 482 million bus.
last three years of the dateline period).
wheat outturn was 2,005 million bus,
"Feed use of wheat, a low-value use of
"Wheat prices are held high in the early
and the recent 10-year average produc- the crop, rises sharply in the initial years of years of the projections despite somewhat
tion was 2,153 million bus. The recent the projections as higher corn prices encour- higher production as higher corn prices suplow production (a 30-year low) was 1,606 age increases in wheat feeding, particularly port wheat prices by encouraging increased
million bus in 2002, and the all-time high in the summer quarter," the U.S.D.A. said. wheat feed use," the U.S.D.A. said. "Later
outturn was 2,785 million bus in 1981.
"As corn prices fall, wheat feeding declines in the projections, wheat exports increase
Domestic use of wheat in 2007-08 was after 2010-11 due to relatively higher wheat moderately, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio
forecast at 1,245 million bus, up 100 mil- prices compared with corn."
and raising wheat prices further." MBN
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