World Grain - September 2022 - 58

HAVE FERTILIZER PRICES
peaked?
Analysts say relief may be on the
horizon after a lengthy bullish period
by Vladislav Vorotnikov
A
n extended price rally in the global mineral
fertilizers market has been among the negative
consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, having
contributed to an increase in global food insecurity.
Recent developments suggest the worst may be over,
though prices are likely to remain high relative to the
period prior to the Ukraine-Russian war.
Russia and Belarus are major players in the global
fertilizers market. In 2021, Russia exported a total of
37.6 million tonnes of fertilizers, including 14.5 million
of nitrogen, 11.9 million of potash, and 11.2 million
of complex fertilizers, for a total of $12.5 billion,
the Russian Federal Customs Service estimated.
Russia delivers nearly 20% of mineral fertilizers
to the global market, primarily serving farmers in the
European Union and Latin America.
In June 2021, Belarus stopped sharing official statistical
information pertaining to the mineral fertilizers
industry operation in a bid to countervail US sanctions
imposed in August and September of that year. In the
previous years, Belarus exported potash for $2.5 billion
per annum, primarily to Brazil, China, India and
the European Union. In early 2021, Belarus accounted
for roughly 17% of the world's potash export, the
Belarusian government estimated.
Over the past few years, Russia and Belarus have
shared a common export policy, including in the mineral
fertilizers market, with a large share of Belarussian
58
mineral fertilizers being exported through Russian seaports
in the Baltic region.
" Russia is a very powerful player in the global fertilizer
market, " said Mark Goykhman, chief economist
of the Moscow, Russia-based TeleTrade Information
and Analytical Center. " Our country is the leader in
the world's nitrogen fertilizers exports, accounting for
about 18% of the global supplies. It is closely followed
by China (16%) and the EU (9%).
" In the list of the largest phosphate fertilizers exporters,
Russia ranks third, holding a 15% market share
after China and Morocco, while in terms of potash fertilizers,
its share used to be close to 24%, compared to
38% of the largest supplier - Canada. "
Fears of skyrocketing prices
In part due to Western economic sanctions introduced
against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in
February, Russian and Belarussian fertilizers exports
have plunged into chaos.
Andrey Guryev, head of the Russian Fertilizer
Producers Association (RAPU), estimated in June that
though fertilizers had not been subjected directly to
the Western sanctions, supplies nearly halved in AprilMay,
owing to a logistics crunch and problems Russian
suppliers experienced with collecting payments for delivered
products.
Belarusian state potash fertilizer producer Belaruskali
September 2022 / World Grain / World-Grain.com
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World Grain - September 2022

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