Milling & Baking News - June 2, 2020 - 47

Ingredient Market Trends
AAFC forecasts Canadian 2021 wheat
carryover at 6,800,000 tonnes

A

griculture and Agri-Food Canada
in its monthly Outlook for Principal Field Crops released May
22 forecast the carryover of all wheat
in Canada on Aug. 1, 2021, at 6,800,000
tonnes, down 100,000 tonnes from the
April outlook but up 900,000 tonnes, or
15%, from 5,900,000 tonnes as the projection for 2020. The May carryover and
other wheat supply-and-demand forecasts for 2020-21 included adjustments
from April based on information incorporated from Statistics Canada's report
on March 31 grain and oilseed stocks
Indexes
and that agency's March Seeding Intentions of Principal Field Crops report,
Shortbread Cookie Ingredients
both issued on May 7.
AAFC projected Canadian all-wheat
production in 2020 at 33,900,000 tonnes,
unchanged from the April outlook
but up 1,552,000 tonnes, or 5%, from
32,348,000 tonnes in 2019. AAFC forecast area seeded to all wheat in 2020 at
10,349,000 hectares, 81,000 hectares less
than the April projection but 224,000
hectares, or 2%, more than the 2019
seeded area at 10,125,000 hectares. The
harvested area for this year was foreBagel Ingredients
cast at 9,994,000 hectares compared
with 10,155,000 hectares as the April
projection, but the projected average
yield for 2020 was raised to 3.39 tonnes
per hectare from 3.34 tonnes in April,
which resulted in a crop forecast equal
to last year's outturn.
The total all-wheat supply in 202021 was forecast at 40,000,000 tonnes,
up 60,000 tonnes from April and up
4% from 38,638,000 tonnes in 2019-20.
Domestic use of all wheat in 2020-21
was forecast at 9,100,000 tonnes, down
Price Indicators
40,000 tonnes from the April projection
2
3
and down 738,000 tonnes, or 8%, from
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
9,838,000 tonnes as the forecast for the
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
current year. All-wheat exports in 2020Pan-bread flour
21 were projected at 24,100,000 tonnes,
Wheat futures,
up 200,000 tonnes from the April forecast
K.C., July
and up 5% from a projected 22,900,000
Hard winter
tonnes in 2019-20.
premiums,
AAFC forecast area planted to wheat
12.2% protein
excluding durum in Canada for harMillfeed, K.C.,
vest in 2020 at 8,233,000 hectares, up
30-day
83,000 hectares from the April outlook
Soybean oil
and up 88,000 hectares, or 1%, from
Cane sugar
8,145,000 hectares in 2019. AAFC said
Cocoa
winter wheat area increased 17% from
47 / November/7,world-grain.com
2017
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2019 and forecast a marginal decrease
in spring wheat area. Production of
wheat excluding durum was forecast at 28,400,000 tonnes, up 400,000
tonnes from the April projection and up
1,029,000 tonnes, or 4%, from 27,731,000
tonnes in 2019. AAFC said, "The winter wheat production is projected to
increase by 65% to 2.8 million tonnes
due to higher seeded area and a return
to normal abandonment rate. Spring
wheat production is expected to fall
marginally to 25.6 million tonnes."
AAFC forecast the carryover of durum on Aug. 1, 2021, at 800,000 tonnes,
down 11% from the projection for the
current year at 900,000 tonnes. The
area seeded to durum was forecast at

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2,116,000 hectares, down 164,000 hectares from the April projection but up 7%
from 1,980,000 hectares in 2019. Based
on a return to a normal abandonment
rate and higher trend yields, AAFC
projected durum production in 2020 at
5,500,000 tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes
from April but up 523,000 tonnes, or
11%, from 4,977,000 tonnes in 2019.
Because of the small 2020 carryover, the
durum supply in 2020-21 was forecast at
6,500,000 tonnes, down 5% from 6,869,000
tonnes in 2019-20. Domestic use in 202021 was forecast at 800,000 tonnes, down
25% from 1,069,000 tonnes in the current year. AAFC forecast 2020-21 durum
exports at 4,900,000 tonnes, unchanged
from the projection for 2019-20. MBN
bakingbusiness.com
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News
June /2,world-grain.com
2020 / 47
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Milling & Baking News - June 2, 2020

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