Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020 - 47

Ingredient Market Trends
Corn supply-and-demand outlook
adjusted to smaller crop

The National Agricultural Statistics
Service of the US Department of Agriculture forecast the 2020 corn crop at
14,899,557,000 bus, down 378,645,000
bus, or 2%, from the August projection
but up 1,282,296,000 bus, or 9%, from
13,617,261,000 bus in 2019. As projected
in August, US corn production would
have been record high. With the reduction made in the September projection,
the 2020 corn crop,
should the current forecast be realized, would
be second in size to the
Indexes
record outturn of 15,148
million bus in 2016.
White Pan Bread Ingredients
The NASS forecast
harvested area for corn
in 2020 at 83,473,000
acres, down 550,000
acres from the August projection but up
2,151,000 acres, or 3%,
from 81,322,000 acres
in 2019. The NASS projected the average corn
yield at a record 178.5
bus per acre, down 3.3
Devil's Food Snack Cake Ingredients
bus per acre from the August outlook
but up 11.1 bus per acre from 2019.
The Economic Research Service, in its
Feed Outlook issued Sept. 15, affirmed
the production forecast was lowered primarily because of the damage caused by
the severe thunderstorm derecho, which
tore through Iowa on Aug. 10. The Iowa
harvested area forecast was lowered
550,000 tonnes, and the average yield
for the state was projected at 191 bus per
acre, down 11 bus per acre from the August forecast.
Price Indicators
"The production forecast for the larg2
3
est corn-producing state in the nation is
THIS LAST WEEKS WEEKS
lowered 254 million bus to 2,483 million,
WEEK WEEK AGO AGO
the lowest since 2009," the ERS said. "In
Pan-bread flour
addition to wind damage, extremely
Wheat futures,
dry August weather affected large parts
KC, Dec.
of the southern corn belt. This includes
Hard winter
Iowa, where the drought is the worst
premiums,
since September 2013 and has forced
12.2% protein
producers to harvest corn earlier than
Millfeed, KC,
optimal."
30-day
With an estimated 2020-21 carry-in
Soybean oil
supply of 2,253 million bus and a 2020
Cane sugar
crop forecast at about 14,900 million bus,
Cocoa
the total supply of corn in the United
47 / November/7,world-grain.com
2017
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States in 2020-21 was projected at 17,178
million bus, up 1,295 million bus, or 8%,
from 15,883 million bus in 2019-20.
Domestic use of corn in 2020-21 was
projected at 12,350 million bus, down
200 million bus from the August forecast but up 485 million bus, or 4%, from
11,865 million bus in 2019-20. Feed and
residual use of corn in 2020-21 was projected at 5,825 million bus, down 100

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million from the August outlook but up
225 million bus, or 4%, from 5,600 million bus in 2019-20.
Food, seed and industrial use of corn
in the current year was forecast at 6,525
million bus, down 100 million bus from
August but up 260 million bus, or 4%,
from 6,265 million bus in the prior year.
Included in the food, seed and industrial
use outlook was a forecast for corn used
in manufacturing ethanol at 5,100 million bus, down 100 million bus from August but up 245 million bus, or 5%, from
4,855 million bus in 2019-20.
The ERS commented, "Corn for ethanol is lowered on reduced prospects for
a revival of gasoline consumption in
2020-21."
The USDA projected corn exports in
2020-21 at 2,325 million bus, up 100 million bus from August and up 560 million
bus, or 32%, from 1,765 million bus in
2019-20.
The USDA forecast the carryover of
corn on Sept. 1, 2021, at 2,503 million
bus, down 253 million bus from August
but up 250 million bus, or 11%, from
2,253 million bus in 2020. MBN
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September/ world-grain.com
22, 2020 / 47

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Milling & Baking News - September 22, 2020

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