IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - 61

del sistema y asignar reservas con mucha anticipación para
mantener los costos al mínimo. En los operadores de siste-
mas irlandeses, EirGrid y el Operador de sistemas de Irlanda
del Norte, se ha desarrollado un sistema de advertencia de
HSSD basado en el Sistema de predicción de conjuntos de
múltiples esquemas (MSEPS, por sus siglas en inglés) de 75
miembros de WEPROG, un método de tipo 3 (véase el grá-
fico 1), para este fin. El sistema de advertencia de HSSD
contiene tres componentes:
✔ un indicador de probabilidad de que una fracción del
HSSD experimentará un corte (en cooperación con el
usuario final, se determina la parte crítica de la capa-
cidad del sistema, por ejemplo, el 30 % de la capaci-
dad),
✔ una parte acumulada de la capacidad de corte previs-
ta, que proporciona la probabilidad de corte acumu-
lada para la escasez temporal prevista de capacidad
y desniveles,
✔ y una tabla que combina la información anterior para
un análisis más detallado y planificación de acciones.

Funciones de densidad de
probabilidad de los errores de predicción de demanda

Funciones de densidad de
probabilidad de los errores de predicción de la energía eólica

Probabilidad

0.012
0.01
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0

(MW)

Funciones de densidad de probabilidad
de la inexistencia de unidades de generación

0

0

00
5,

0

00

00

4,

0

3,

0

Convolución de funciones de
densidad de probabilidad previa

-8
,0
0
-6 0
,0
0
-4 0
,0
00
-2
,0
00

00
0
-1
0,

50
0
1,
00
0
1,
50
0
2,
00
0
2,
50
0
3,
00
0
3,
50
0
4,
00
0
4,
50
0
5,
00
0
(MW)

0
2,
00
0
4,
00
0
6,
00
0
8,
00
0
10
,0
00

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1

Probabilidad

0.2
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0

0

00

(MW)
(b)

(a)

Probabilidad

2,

-5

1,

00

,0
0
-4 0
,0
00
-3
,0
0
-2 0
,0
00
-1
,0
00

0

0
00

0

5,

0

00
4,

0

00
3,

0

00
2,

0

00

1,

00
,0

00

-1

00

,0
-2

00

,0

,0

-3

-4

-5

,0

00

Probabilidad

0.016
0.014
0.012
2
1
0.01
0.008
8
0.006
06
0
6
0.0
004
0
0.004
0.0
0.
0
..0
00
002
0.002
0

El gráfico 9 muestra los tres componentes del sistema. El
gráfico 9(a) muestra la amplitud de las velocidades extremas
del viento que causan un cierto porcentaje de corte combi-
nado con fuertes reducciones. Con esto, se obtiene un cono-
cimiento importante para ayudar a determinar 1) la reserva
máxima requerida para mantener el equilibrio del sistema,
2) el riesgo de una escasez que exceda la capacidad de incre-
mento disponible, y 3) el riesgo de exceso de capacidad y
congestión en las líneas eléctricas. Después de las pruebas
iniciales, EirGrid determinó que la amplitud de los eventos
es útil para estas consideraciones. Sin embargo, se requirió
una acumulación temporal de la capacidad que está en riesgo
de paralización [gráfico 9 (b)] para que el personal de la sala
de control pueda considerar la cantidad total y la duración de
la reserva requerida, así como las reducciones e incrementos
asociados de la capacidad previamente reducida. La tabla del
gráfico 9(c) muestra detalles para la planificación específica
del personal de la sala de control.
El gráfico 10 muestra un ejemplo en tiempo real de dos
eventos concurrentes de HSSD en los que el sistema de

(MW)

(c)

(d)
1h

4h

10 h

20 h

36 h

gráfico 11. Ejemplo del sistema REE de la convolución de las pdf para demanda, viento e interrupciones: (a) pdf de error
de predicción para demanda, (b) pdf de error de predicción para viento, (c) pdf de interrupciones no programadas de
unidades térmicas, y (d) pdf de convolución de demanda, viento e interrupción.
noviembre/diciembre 2019

ieee power & energy magazine

61



IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019

Contents
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - Spanish - November 2019 - Cover1
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